Samsung Galaxy S4 Could Tank Samsung Stock, Says Analyst
The Samsung Galaxy S4 launches on March 14th in New York City, and according to one analyst this could be Samsung’s iPhone 5 moment.
Even though Apple sold 10 million iPhone 5 devices in the opening weekend, an iPhone 5 moment is not a good thing. The term refers to Apple’s stock peak and then dive after the launch of the iPhone 5 last year. In the following months, Apple stock remains down despite overall good sales, thanks to an inability to meet high analyst and industry expectations.
Berenberg Bank analyst Adnaan Ahmad believes that investors can learn from Apple’s stock performance and believes Samsung stock will experience a rise from the March 14th launch and subsequent Samsung Galaxy S4 release with great H1 sales.
But overall Ahmad is not hopeful, as outlined in his report shared on Barrons.
learning from our Apple experience, the Galaxy S4 launch could be Samsung’s iPhone 5 “moment” – when the Apple stock peaked.
However, we think that – as with Apple – investors will quickly start to look beyond H1 2013. Hence any near-term strength in the stock for us is an opportunity to sell down positions.
The lengthy report discusses possible Samsung Galaxy S4 features, several of which seem out of line with current rumors. Ahmad mentions the possibility of a flexible display, something we don’t expect and focuses on the AMOLED display technology Samsung has used in past smartphones, but recent rumors suggest the company may need to switch to LCD for the Galaxy S4. While focusing on the hardware Galaxy S4 features Ahmed asks, “how much better can it really be?”
One interesting note is his prediction that foldable displays are a big differentiating factor, but that such technology is 12-18 months out.
While the Samsung Galaxy S4 specs and hardware are important, it is possible that the built-in Samsung software will steal the show with an eye scrolling feature and support for gestures and motion controls not found on the iPhone 5.
Apple did not set the industry expectations for iPhone sales, and despite rumors that Samsung is planning to sell 100 million Samsung Galaxy S4 devices, the company has not publicly announced such a goal.
The Samsung Galaxy S4 is Samsung’s latest flagship smartphone, the successor to the popular Galaxy S3 from 2012. Samsung is heavily invested in the success of this iPhone 5 and iPhone 5S competitor, complete with an ad campaign and a NY Times Square experience for March 14th.
The current Samsung Galaxy S4 rumors suggest a 4.99-inch 1080P full HD display, a new 13MP camera and a quad core processor. The phone will likely feature a wireless charging kit which users can purchase separately.
The Samsung Galaxy S4 release date is likely to occur in the first half of 2013, which lines up with Ahmad’s predictions for a good H1 for Samsung. Rumors point to a release in April for international markets. Early U.S. Samsung Galaxy S4 release date leaks indicated May or June. There is hope that Samsung will announce a faster U.S. Galaxy S4 release thanks to pressure from carriers, a U.S. based launch event and the rumored Times Square Samsung Experience.