Here’s my take, hunches, best guesses, and coin flips for 2008.

• Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) will dominate the conversation for the first half of the year. What happens in the 2^nd half is anybody’s guess.
• Call it Ultra-Mobile PC, call it UMPC, call it Origami. Call it what you will, but by the end of 2008 call it in its dying throes. The ultra mobile vision will remain, but in other devices. 
• Unlike Rob, I don’t see Dell re-evaluating their price point on the XT Tablet PC so soon. The high price point is consistent with the markets they have been targeting from the beginning. If the prices drop it will be a year from now at the earliest.
• Apple will not market a Tablet PC in 2008.  Instead it will be a communication device that takes advantage of the iPhone’s features as well as the Back to My Mac features for users to grab their data on the road. Because it will have a touch interface and be able to take advantage of InkWell, Tablet PC aficionados will call it a failure.
• Touch will again be a dominate feature and news story. The real question is will anyone develop an application that makes it more than a fancy way to play media, turn pages, or manipulate photos. Or is that enough?
• Multi-touch is still a ways off. Someone, somewhere, needs to develop a real use for it on the Tablet PC and mobile devices.
• With the exception of the MID and whatever Apple will do in 2008, next year’s headlines will be about technologies that change or provide new content delivery methods, similar to the Amazon Kindle.
• Microsoft’s marketing will continue to be mediocre at best and miss the mark more than it will hit.
• DRM will continue to cripple operating systems and content delivery methods. Most consumers won’t notice. Those that do will root for Amazon, Walmart, and Independent music producers to keep putting the pressure on.
• New releases of new products across the board will slow down in 2008. Some consumers will remember Apple’s iPhone price drop form 2007, companies will try to get a better handle on delivery inadequacies. Consumers are starting to notice that their voices can be heard, and companies will start to slow things down a bit, to hopefully improve on what they eventually release.
• The word “open” will get bandied around a lot. As in Google’s efforts to make mobile devices more open with its Google Android mobile OS. The word open will lose all meaning in the marketing miasma.
• OneNote 2007 will continue to remain a secret.
• The Asus Eee PC story is just getting started. It will have much more impact in 2008.
• The companies to watch in the mobile space who will have the greatest impact will be Apple, Nokia, HTC, Asus, and Google.
• HP, Toshiba, and Lenovo will continue to dominate the consumer Tablet PC space, although we probably won’t see anything really new until 2009. Fujitsu nees to make some noise here.
• Inking on Tablet PCs will continue to remain the ultimate niche in a niche product.
• There will be a major Internet outage or Bot Attack in 2008, prompting all sorts of chaos and howling. This will lead to a renewed interest in client apps vs. the cloud.

Well, I’m not sure if it is an “Ultimate” challenge or not, because I really am only checking out three devices here, but play along.

There are a lot of closet Stall Surfers out there. You know who you are. In fact, it is, in my considered opinion, one of the reasons that folks love mobile devices so much is the opportunity for a bit of Stall Surfing. Forget all the talk about making you more productive at work. It is all about being able to cruise the Internet, read an eBook, or check email in those very private moments. With the advent of touch devices, even those touchy about the subject are coming out of the closet on this issue. And don’t feign modesty here. You know I’m talking to you.

Time for my annual Christmas Wish List of things I’d like to see for Tablet PC, UMPC, and Mobile PC users. (Here’s a link to last year’s.) These aren’t gadgets I’d like to see under mine or anyone’s tree, nor are they predictions. Instead these are things I’d like to see happen. As always, I’m an impatient old elf, when it comes to these sorts of things.

I’d like to see the many solutions we have floating around for coordinating our life “in the cloud” with our life “on the desktop” advance to a point where we all might feel a little more comfortable.

I’d like to see Intel come up with a better marketing strategy, and clearer communication strategy, for and about its chip speeds. The average user has a hard enough time figuring out what’s what these days. When yesterday’s chip speed compared to today’s is really meaningless, somebody needs to spell it out a bit more clearly.

I’d like to see UMPC makers (and MID makers for that matter) recognize the importance of Inking and come out with a UMPC  (or MID) that allows accurate note taking ability. There is need for a small device that can do more than play media, show pictures, and manipulate icons with a touch interface.

I’d like to see small mobile device makers quit thinking about the stylus as a throw in, and actually design one that is comfortable and efficient to use.

I’d like to see the CEO’s of the companies that keep coming up with these tiny keyboards for mobile devices be forced to use them for at least 90 days before they sign off on the design.

I’d like to see the rush to advertising on everything in order to provide free software and services slow down a little bit. I’m just asking here, but do you know anyone who has ever clicked on an ad? I don’t.

I’d like to see the good folks at Dell who think the pricing of the new Latitude XT is a good bargain reexamine their thoughts on this, and quickly.

I’d like to see Amazon, Apple, and other on-line music vendors who launched DRM free efforts succeed in a big way. DRM is still a curse and slows so much of everything down.

I’d like to see Apple come out with a Tablet this year, sooner rather than later.

I’d like to see Microsoft figure out just how woeful its marketing efforts are and put in a major course correction here. Now, please.

I’d like to see mobile computer OEMs take a lesson from Asus and the Eee PC, (and also jkk’s moding by adding a touch screen to it.) These price points don’t have to be so high.

I’d still like to see more direct Inking in the operating system.

I’d like to see Google’s push to open up in mobile connectivity succeed in a big way.

Oh, and as always, whirled peas.

What’s on your Christmas Wish List?

James Kendrick started a meme and Ink Blogging impresario Mark “Sumocat” Sumimoto picked up about Inking and the differences between digtal Inking and Inking with pen and paper. There’s should be no secret what I prefer, and I won’t re-list the excellent and oft-repeated points in favor of digital Inking both jk and Sumocat bring up. Go read their posts.

What I will say (and I’m sure I’ve said it before) at times there can be something wonderfully serene and tranquil about taking notes with a digital pen, As a writer and inveterate note taker, that is very important to me. Sure I take notes in hectic meetings and rehearsals and a Tablet PC with OneNote 2007 serves me very well there. But there are times that I need to be alone with my thoughts as I’m pondering through things. In those times I can not ever imagine taking notes on a piece of paper again. The best way I can describe it is to say simply, that Inking in those instances is nothing short of sublime and it gives me the security and serenity to know that those notes are with me as I move about my life with Tablet PC in hand. It has become more than a preference for me. It has become a visceral reaction and an emotional one as well. The “how” I do it, is important as “what” I’m doing.

This is one of the reasons that I rant frequently about the move away from Inking on Ultra-Mobile PCs. I know from the responses to those threads, I’m not the only one who feels this way. Sumocat is correct. These points bear repeating, until small mobile device OEMs get it and understand how they need to keep the Inkers in mind for future devices. Once you have experienced Inking on a Tablet PC, you’ll never want to go back pen and paper again.

I’m been without my voice, suffering from laryngitis since last weekend. On top of that it was a crazy week at work, so I got no rest on that side of my life. (I secretly think my staff likes it when I can’t speak.) But, my staff came to the rescue and stepped up to give me the weekend off from the theatre to rest my voice. The timing was excellent on a number of fronts. I could sure use the rest. My wife and I are searching for a new car purchase. And I had a number of geek and gadget projects to work through this weekend including setting up a new iMac, updating the Sprint (HTC) Mogul, and getting a printer hooked up for the Asus Eee PC. We don’t have a large apartment (life rarely gives us time there) and so when I’m geeking out, I’m usually working at the kitchen table, or setting in my easy chair. This weekend’s projects took over not just the kitchen table, but also the kitchen.

Loren Heiny sees some hope for fans of the Tablet PC/UMPC slate form factor in all of the hoopla and the initial selling out of the Amazon Kindle.

This is a trend that I hope Tablet designers are paying attention to. Why? Because for the most part over the last couple years it appears that the Tablet PC designers and marketers have resolved that the slate form factor (for the most part) wasn’t where the majority of the market potential was and “convertibles” were the “right” form factor, I think they got it wrong and these new devices are going to be teaching them a lesson.

Microsoft had it right with its prototype orange Tablet PC and better yet with its Haiku UMPC design. Even NEC’s LitePad (Ed note-pictured)was a smart design–among others. Generally, the thinner, the better. The easier to use, the better. I’d also add the cheaper, the better. To me the OEMs and Tablet PC marketing has lead the Tablet PC to a nameless, homogeneous, fairly uninspired collection of notebooks.

He might be on to something, but I’m not sure that Amazon’s eBook reader is the kindling that is going to light the fire. I’ve seen responses all over the map about the Kindle ranging from Rob’s excellent balanced coverage (here, here, here, and here) to Robert Scoble’s reeling rant. I think the jury is still way out on the Kindle, at least in this first edition of the hardware.

What Loren is correct about his is analysis as to why the slate factor has never taken off. Microsoft and NEC did have it right in the beginning and somehow that got lost in a big way.

Back in October I posted A Plea for Better Inking on Small Mobile Devices. It got quite a bit of response. That post came after working with the Asus R2H UMPC, as I usually do, to take notes in play rehearsals for our last production. During the recent rehearsal period for It’s A Wonderful Life: A Live Radio Play, I changed tools and didn’t carry the Asus R2H to rehearsals. I’ve got it up for sale, (along with a Samsung Q1P),  and thought I better start weaning myself off of that device. Instead I used the Lenovo X61 Tablet PC for most of those chores and it served my needs well. Inking rocks on a Tablet PC for note taking. It could rock on a UMPC or a MID. But I fear it won’t.

Yesterday was a hectic rehearsal day, as was this entire week, save for a brief respite on Thanksgiving Day. We had two run thrus of It’s A Wonderful Life: A Live Radio Play. It is is a short play (about 90 minutes long without intermission,) which allows for the double attempt at the show in one rehearsal. As usual I’m taking notes in rehearsal, this time just using the Lenovo ThinkPad X61 Tablet PC.

I’m still frustrated with Vista on one front here and that is putting the Tablet PC to sleep. 3 times out of 4 everything will work as advertised. Close the lid, unit goes to sleep, open the lid, unit returns. But occasionally the OS just goes off into its own world without sleeping, or after a successful sleep, not returning. Occasionally it will return from sleep but the screen will stay dark.

I’m beginning to think (this seems to be somewhat reproducible here) that these issues have something to do with being connected or disconnected to our WiFi network. Here’s what I’m experiencing and maybe someone smarter than me can help out here with some thoughts.

I’ve been in heavy duty technical rehearsals this week for Wayside Theatre’s annual Christmas show, which accounts for my lack of posting recently. This year we are producing It’s A Wonderful Life: A Life Radio Play, which has proved to be a lot of fun so far. But the reason I’m writing this isn’t about the play. I’m surrounded all day with actors, technicians, and artists as we work to bring the play to life. Although I’m the only Tablet PC guy in the bunch, at various points on breaks I look out into the auditorium and I’ll see 7 to 10 folk with various laptops open working on whatever they are working on. Some, like the lighting and sound designers are doing work for their respective jobs. Some are checking feeds, sports scores, news, email, etc…. All seem to be enjoying what they are doing and there are a variety of Macs and PCs afloat in this little sea of worker bees. I’d also classify the majority of this little assemblage as above average when it comes to being tech aware an savvy.

Yesterday during the dinner break for our 10 of 12 (a technical rehearsal where we can work 10 hours out of 12 with a two hour dinner break) I asked several of them about some of this year’s latest gadgets and if any of them had any of these new gadgets on their Christmas list. I asked specifically about the new iPods, Zunes, and the Kindle. I also asked about UMPCs, cellphones, Nokia’s devices and laptop/notebooks/Tablet PCs in general.

We’ve been hearing calls for a more mobile-orienated operating system recently and recent news about the next Microsoft OS, Windows 7, is a part of the spark that is lighting that fire. Call it MinWin, or what have you, talk of an embedded OS for mobile systems certainly makes sense. After reading Loren Heiny’s recent post, it makes even more sense to me.

Loren nailed a couple of key points that I agree with (my paraphrases below): 

• The lack of symmetry between hardware advances and Vista’s release was more than problematic.
• Hardware for mobile devices started “trending down” in performance instead of “trending up.”

Loren states further:

I’d sum it up this way: Microsoft needs a mobile-minded OS solution sooner than later. One that can fit comfortably on a reasonably priced SSD. It has to. Today. The OS needs to keep me connected as I move around or as services fade in and out. Period. Today. The OS needs to run well on battery savvy hardware–that means hardware that’s minimalist–not much memory, not much processor umph, not much battery capacity. Today. The OS experience needs to be optimized and sensible for a variety of small displays. Today.

As Loren points out, waiting until 2010 for either a full blown new OS, or MinWin is not a good thing. In fact, I think if Microsoft can’t accelerate the tempo, the market will most likely leave them behind.

The conversation over the lack of slates in the Ultra-Mobile PC space keeps on keeping on with Down Under blogger Craig Pringle weighing in with his thoughts. Craig turns his attention to the larger slate picture with both Tablet PCs and UMPCs, and among his points he thinks we’ll have to wait until the next Windows OS before slates will find any traction beyond the vertical markets. I’m guessing the landscape will continue to change much too quickly before Microsoft releases a new OS that might make it easier for pen friendly computing on a slate. In fact, I’m guessing further, based on what we’re seeing in the market now with touchscreens on UMPCs and other devices, that the horse may have already left the barn.

Meanwhile, over on jkOnTheRun, James Kendrick has posted about the comments he made on the recent MobileTech Roundup podcast and there is a very passionate discussion going on in the comments to that thread. This is a great discussion that I think is happening way too late in the game.

On the most recent MobileTech Roundup podcast, hosts James Kendrick, Kevin Tofel and Matt Miller wonder what happened to the slates. Well, they don’t just wonder what happened. Kendrick sort of declares them dead, at least as far as UMPCs are concerned. It is a shame really, that the move to add a keyboard to any Ultra-Mobile device out there has become such an overriding concern. Couple that with the lack of digitziers that can allow any reasonable attempt at Inking, and you have complete abandoment of a platform and confusion in the market.

And speaking of the market, The MobileTech Rounderuppers say the mythic market has spoken. I take slight issue with that position. What market? One never developed because there was no clear vision of what was being sold. And if there had of been, how can you sell a device that focuses on touch without giving consumers an opportunity to touch the devices, or at least creating commercials that show what that means. Intriguinly all of the critics who derided UMPCs for a lack of a keyboard swallowed Apple’s vision ot touch whole hog. Apple had a clear version of how to market their new device and make touch palpable to the consumer (and to the influencers.) They even cushioned the blow a bit by saying up front that it would take consumers time to adjust to the digital keyboard. No, the market never materialized due to both a lack of a coherent marketing strategy and a lack of a clear vision on how to sell UMPCs.

In my opinion, the move to add keyboards just shows that both Microsoft and the OEMs are scared out of their minds in the face of what Apple and Nokia have created (although Nokia has now curiously added a keyboard to the N810). An interesting side note about this that sort of proves the point. Check out this new Zune commerical that appears to show the Zune with a touch screen. It doesn’t have one to my knowledge but the suggestion is sure there. They really have absolutley no clue as to what they want these devices to be or how to bring them to market. They never did.

Over the last year or so there has been much talk about low cost computing solutions targeted at the education market and emerging nation markets. First there was the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) that was intially ballyhooed as the $100 computer. Then came the Asus Eee PC, (aimed somewhat at education, but also as a low price consumer model) which originally had a price target of under $200. Both prices climbed a bit in reality, (the OLPC to under $200, and the Eee PC to between $299 and $500.) Packard Bell is also weighing in, but at a little steeper price and that price seems to keep fluctuating a bit.

Om Malik asks the same question I’ve been pondering for awhile about these low priced portables. What impact will they have on the mobile computing market? I’m not sure and I think the jury is a long ways from giving a verdict. Although Asus is making a huge pitch during the upcoming holiday season. But, if these devices achieve any sort of market penetration at all (even in specialized situations) I’m sure some will take notice. Om thinks, and I agree, that the price point of the Eee PC qualifies it as an impulse buy, and if all you’re looking for is the Internet, email, and some light document work, it could certainly be an attractive option for those on a budget.

Intriguingly, yesterday, InfoWorld reported that adding Windows XP to the Eee PC would double the price of that device, which is a real puzzler.

What are your thoughts? Will these low priced alternatives have an impact? As they take advantage of open source applications, will this push open source solutions, and Linux, forward as a viable option? Remember, we’re going to see a lot more about Linux with the release of the MIDs soon.

It will all be interesting to watch.

Yesterday was the first run-thru of the new show we are working on, Shadow of the Raven: Stories of Edgar Allan Poe. While I take notes all the time in rehearsal, a run-thru is a rehearsal where I sit still (more than I normally do), watch the rehearsal, take notes, and given them orally afterwards.

For almost a year now, I’ve been using the Asus R2H as my primary device in rehearsals both with XP and also with Vista. What I love about using that particular Ultra-Mobile PC is that I can take notes in OneNote without thinking about it as I get no registration or vectoring issues. I’ve experimented with this using the Samsung Q1P but the Inking experience is just not the same. I’ve also experimented with the OQO Model 02, and although I love that little device, it is just to small for the chores at hand in that circumstance.

So, here’s my plea to the OEMs (I mentioned this on our latest GBM Podcast as well): Don’t forget the Inkers out there. As we head into Mobile Internet Device land, and a newer wave of UMPCs as well, don’t forget the note takers out there. Use a digitizer that allows those of us who need to take notes on a regular basis a real opportunity to do so, in the same way we have been able to with Tablet PCs. I enjoy tremendously the touch navigation and what that offers, but I happen to believe that there are others out there, like me, who see tremendous value in picking up a small mobile device to take notes. Having to place your hand just so on a screen to take notes defeats that purpose and quickly leads to frustration.

The 7 inch screen size is almost perfect for this functionality. Smaller, in my opinion, doesn’t work. Yeah, I’m selfish. I want it all. I want the ease of the soft touch screen navigation, with a reliable method of note taking. I just don’t think that should be too hard to accomplish, (after all Asus did, and so did Fujitsu with the P1610) nor do I think the OEMs should miss or ignore the market that I’m sure is available for this kind of note taking device.

Cue Paul Simon.

Quite a bit of consternation out there caused by the recent news about the XP downgrading option. And for those who love to wring their hands and say the sky is falling, that tune just keeps on playing.

But some just keep looking for better/different solutions. Two stalwarts in the Tablet PC community, who know a thing or two about mobile tech,  have each published interesting posts that point up just how fragile and shaky things are these days, and I dare say, how fragile and shaky things might continue to be ro some time. The two hosts of the OnTheRun with Tablet PCs podcast, James Kendrick and Marc Orchant, lay out some reasoning on two fronts that I think many are going through in their own minds. At least Steve Jobs and his PR machine hope that is the case.

Small firestorm alert. In the last couple of days CNET and Engadget have blown some air on the embers that have been simmering over Vista issues. And of course in mobile circles those issues smolder pretty close to the surface. It was reported that “Microsoft is quietly allowing PC Makers to offer a downgrade option to buyers that get machines with the new operating system but want to switch to Windows XP.” Actually this isn’t really news at all. If you follow the link to this document, you’ll see that this has been available for Vista Business and Vista Ultimate customers since the beginning. The “quietly” part may be news, (I would like to think it was just because this wasn’t communicated effectively by Microsoft and not just lousy reporting), and how some OEMs are handling this may be news, but there is more to the story beyond flame fanning.

I’ve been following Jenneth at Gear Diary and her romance with a new Asus R2H UMPC. She’s running the later model, which operates on a Pentium-M and comes with Vista pre-installed. At first she was completely smitten, but now she’s contemplating a break up. Seems she’s run into that Touchscreen issue that has plagued the Asus R2H and can’t quite get see going ahead with the courtship unless Asus comes to the tablet with a fix. This issue is the one where the touchscreen just stops registering input from your finger or stylus. I see it occassionaly on my R2H (an earlier model) but not as frequently as others are seeing it with the new models and some older models. There is a suggested fix (installing the ATKOSD2 driver package) but this seems to work for some and not others. Of course installing and reinstalling drivers on the Asus R2H is a hit and miss proposition at best.

Of course, Asus has other screen issues that they aren’t paying attention to in a timely fashion either. Like the fact that somehow their screen drivers reverse the x and y coordinates on touch input, which causes any application written with the Windows Presentation Foundation (NY Times Reader) to instantly crash when you touch the screen.

It is a shame Asus isn’t a quicker to the punch on this. There have been quite a few R2H users, like Jenneth, who have experienced the first blush of romance fade after some careless touchscreen issues.

After the excellent reporting from GITEX by Kaz 911 on the HTC Shift, a number of folks who had great interest in the device after Hugo’s first look InkShow, have shifted from the “I’m Buying” column to “Wait and See” mode. And, in my opinion, for good reason. Hugo’s first look at a production unit left a lot of questions unanswered for him and thousands of viewers. While Kaz 911 provided us with some more info, most intriguingly the news that the device is not running a full version of Windows Mobile and a 2 hour battery life, there still seem to be a lot of questions out there. I’m still skeptical of how the whole Broadcom/Qualcomm spat is going to affect this, even with contrary assurances from HTC. My searching ability may be in error here, but as of yet, there is no info on the HTC Shift on the FCC site. (Not unusal timing since they are talking November/December at the earliest for US release.) In many respects I think we are dealing with a tough to pin down moving target here. Others seem to agree. Thoughtfix is re-evaluating his purchasing plans based on the new info. Steve “Chippy” Paine has put up a comparison chart with other UMPCs and in his article he says, “the HTC Shift doesn’t look like it’s going to be the de-facto leader in the UMPC market.”

Count me as one of those who thought the Shift was going to be a real game changer. It still might be. But for now, count me as in the “Wait and See” column.

I’m relaxing this morning in Colorado Springs waiting for Matt Faulkner to arrive and waiting for Rob Bushway to return from a super-secret meeting (more on that next week) before we get underway with our GBM planning sessions and the Meetup. Relaxing is something I seldom get a chance to do, and boy am I enjoying sitting outside the hotel looking at the mountains and doing a little feed reading. All this relaxing gives me a chance to think and that’s always a dangerous game. So, here are some things on my mind this morning.

Free WiFi. Yeah, some hotels, coffee shops, etc… advertise it as an amenity. Some, like this Hilton location in Colorado Springs, need to bring out the truth-in-advertising meter before they do. This location would be better off advertising Free Internet Browsing. They’ve blocked enough ports and access that I can’t connect on Messenger or receive email from any of my accounts other than GMail through the web. Others in the dining room I was with this morning were complaining about the same thing. And the fact that Hotels, I guess by necessity, have to outsource their technical support just makes a bad situation worse. I’m actually connected now using EVDO over my Sprint Mogul simply because the wireless set up is so unreliable. Others this morning aren’t so lucky.

Timing.

James Kendrick has had enough. A master of mobile technology, he’s been working with Vista on more mobile devices than I can keep track of. He’s put up a pretty scathing post on jkOnTheRun stating that that in his opinion Vista will never run well on mobile devices and it is one giant step backwards. His long post is summed up nicely in this excerpt:

The whole Vista mobile experience is very unstable and that is unsettling to anyone who needs to get their work done, and get it done now.  I don't care how pretty the OS is or how much new sophisticated stuff is going on under the hood if it makes my performance unpredictable.  That is such a big step backwards that you have to wonder how it can be fixed in the short term.  I fear it can't.  Say what you will about Windows XP the one thing it is on mobile devices is stable.  Rock-solid stable.  Can anyone say that about Vista on mobile PCs?  I have a very bad feeling about the immediate future of mobile computing on the Vista platform.  And that hits me where I live.

He mentions many of the issues that have been well chronicled here on the pages and forums of GBM and elsewhere, like docking and undocking (Rob’s post about this yesterday stirred up a small firestorm) and echoes my experiences with UMPCs and Vista quite well. Anything with one of the newer “mobile” processors and limited to 1GB of memory is nothing short of frustrating running Vista. It is just an unsatisfactory experience on a UMPC, period. I’m actually thinking of selling the two UMPCs I own and waiting (probably in vain) for something better down the line.