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Wednesday, January 02, 2008

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Sierra's 2008 Predictions

- Sierra Modro

Sierra Modro Okay, so I'm just a touch late with my predictions, but I'll still throw in my opinions!

  • Standard Windows based Tablet PCs will start evolving. Microsoft has been going after the "pen/touch as a feature" kind of thinking for a while, and I think as Vista inevitably gets adopted, that the feature mind set will start to prevail. I have really mixed opinions about whether this is a good thing, because I also predict that it will lead to...
  • Less diversity in Tablet PC form factors. We're seeing this already with the number of relatively ho-hum swivel convertibles that are coming out with few slates and no new hybrids. In 2008, more systems will just include a touch screen because they can, and because more people will want them due to the number of iPhone users out there. However, few people will use the ineffective touch screens well, which will cause
  • Frustration with Windows Tablet PC features. And I think this is a Really Good Thing. Because if people get upset, then Microsoft will do something about it. Right now, we're merely a vocal minority. As more systems with touchscreens get in the hands of real users, frustration with the shortcomings will be inevitable and the outcry will finally reach Microsoft.
  • More PowerToys for Tablet PCs. Instead of addressing the requirements in the OS, Microsoft will release at least 6 new Power Toys in 2008 geared directly for ink and touch input. These will attempt to appease the masses while Microsoft works on Vista Service Pack 2.
  • Intel's vision of Mobile Internet Devices will release and people will get really excited and really disappointed. There will be a big bang at CES with lots of buzz. Once the systems start getting into reviewers hands, a couple models will get good reviews, but all will complain that the devices
    • Don't run Windows
    • Aren't fast enough
    • Aren't compatible enough
    • Don't take the place of my desktop system
  • That said however, small, inexpensive ASUS Eee PC type systems will start getting really really popular. However, these aren't MIDs (according to Intel) and whether they're UMPCs or not is an open question. People will start to understand that "Anytime/Anywhere" connectivity can be a really good thing.
  • HTC will FINALLY launch the Shift, and by the time it is released, it will be obsolete.
  • Wacom will finally get some serious competition in the Tablet PC space, from newcomer N-Trig. N-Trig's digitizer will get some great reviews and people will start having a good option beyond Wacom. It will get adopted as an option for some of the upcoming Tablet PC releases.
  • Multi touch will not happen in 2008, at least commercially. There will be talk and there will be lots of demos, but no real uses until the software catches up in 2009.
  • WiMAX will lose even more momentum. I want WiMAX to succeed, but I just don't see it happening, at least not for yet another year. I actually really hope I'm wrong on this one.
  • Wireless USB devices will start popping up here and there and people will start to get interested, but interoperability fears and high prices will stall the adoption.

I'm going to dub 2008 as the Year of the Tweener. I think the big stories in 2008 will all circle around those "in-between" devices - bigger than a cell phone, smaller than a Tablet PC, trying to be multi-functional and sometimes succeeding. The release of the MIDs will whet people's appetites for Internet access, and as these converged devices start to get in the hands of consumers, frustration will set in as the devices fail to live up to our hopes. And the computer manufacturers will listen to us all...

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1/2/2008 4:48 PM MST  

Sierra's 2008 Predictions     Comments [5]  |  Digg This |  del.icio.us |  Citations 
Wednesday, January 02, 2008 7:54:09 PM (Mountain Standard Time, UTC-07:00)
My prediction is that Sierra will not get much of a tan on her face with that hat. :)
Wednesday, January 02, 2008 9:28:44 PM (Mountain Standard Time, UTC-07:00)
I like your first three points and hope something like that happens - a revolution!
or revolt, or uh... whatever we can muster up. The hat is a good start.
ouzome
Wednesday, January 02, 2008 9:34:42 PM (Mountain Standard Time, UTC-07:00)
Isn't the MID supposed to compete against the likes of the Nokia N800/N810, iPod touch, and Archos 605?
I don't think MIDs are intended to be Vista (or XP) capable machines in a convenient pocket-sized package. That would be an OQO.

I don't think their intent is to run Windows, or replace anyone's desktop. I think their intent is to let you browse the web, watch videos, and check your e-mail. (That may not stop someone from putting Windows on it, then complaining about how poorly Windows runs. But I don't think this is what Intel has in mind.)

The only company pushing general functionality anytime/anywhere is OQO. While that may be a compelling vision, I don't think any other company shares it right now. (Certainly, a quick check of prices shows that OQO is clearly not competing against the Nokia N800/N810, iPod touch, or Archos 605. Of course, the OQO is also a fully functional, general purpose Vista box. So the price comparison isn't fair anyway.)


JC
Thursday, January 03, 2008 5:55:22 AM (Mountain Standard Time, UTC-07:00)
I tend to agree on consumer's later dissapointment with MID's, in the end they would rather have a more PC like machine that will run Windows, despite the perceived popularity but still low percentage of Linux proponents. Look at the failure of the MSN home appliance for dedicated web surfing & email.
KillBill
Friday, January 04, 2008 12:52:43 AM (Mountain Standard Time, UTC-07:00)
If the MID's are going to disappoint, where are the cries from unhappy Eee Pc fans who are using the default Linux installation?
ouzome
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