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Wednesday, April 09, 2008

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The Tablet PC Price Point Premium: The Niche Gets Smaller

James Kendrick raises an interesting discussion topic in his post this morning about the premium Tablet PC users pay for Tablet functionality, especially now as the move to Ultra-Low-Cost PCs (ULCPC) is in full swing. JK describes himself as an unusual Tablet PC owner in that he is dependent on taking notes all day. I ride in that same boat using my stylus as an oar. Inking on a Tablet PC is crucial part of my work flow, and like JK, I’ve been reasonably content to pay a premium to take advantage of what Tablet PCs offer me.

The reality is that the perception of that premium is about to change in an unfavorable way for the future of Tablet PCs. The difference in price will look much larger to many. The rush to capitalize on the ULCPC market is on in a big way (see Rob’s earlier post about Dell) and while we might see touch screens on the ULCPC we won’t see active digitizers, much less capacitive or dual mode screens on these new low costs (low margin?) contenders.

JK’s point is a simple one and it is has echoes my pleas for OEMs to pay attention to the Inkers out there for the UMPC platform, which is now headed to the dead pool. If you don’t need the Inking capability of an active digitizer Tablet PC, or at least a touch screen with good Inking capability, then why spend the extra dough if what you are after is a mobile solution? While those of us who have been bitten by the Tablet PC bug, know that Inking is a big part of the picture, mobility is just as big a factor, if not more so. I can certainly attest to the fact that the new HP 2133 Mini-Note could serve many a mobile warrior’s need, if they don’t need an Inking solution.

Face it folks, the Tablet PC niche is getting smaller as mobile computing possibilities grow, and it will continue to shrink. Price point, and to some extent touch (without Inking capability), will be the decision factors for mobile devices in the future. Asus rocked the market and everyone is now in follow the leader mode. Asus grabbed the attention and focus in ways that Microsoft could have only dreamed about for the Tablet PC on its release, and later the UMPC. Let’s just hope the incredible shrinking Tablet PC niche doesn’t shrink completely away.

Tags: Tablet+PC, ULCPC, UMPC

4/9/2008 9:29 AM MST

The Tablet PC Price Point Premium: The Niche Gets Smaller Comments [9] | Digg This | del.icio.us | Citations

Wednesday, April 09, 2008 11:09:24 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

Really really unfortunate. In my book, more is more. When you add an active digitizer and tablet capabilities, a mobile solution becomes way more powerful and flexible. It's a pity that the vast majority of users out there have never even *seen* a Tablet PC - it doesn't help the cause that marketing efforts have been pitifully lame. People around me would see my large tablet (Fuji ST 5020D) and behave as if it were some sort of alien technology. Now when they see my P1610, the reaction is even stronger.

Nonetheless, price is the major determining factor for most consumers and I don't see that changing any time soon. I just hope this trend to smaller, less expensive devices doesn't (a) drive up tablet pricing or (b) lead to their disapperance, which would be an absolute SHAME</i>.

borax99 (Alain)

Wednesday, April 09, 2008 11:41:16 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

I just picked up a Fujitsu U810 to go with My Toshiba M400; and the lack of an active digitizer is a real downfall on the U810. My thought is that they should be in all tablet type devices.

Beyond that, I do see a squeeze coming on the $1,500 to $2,200 tablet market I think we all prefer.

David Howard

Wednesday, April 09, 2008 11:56:53 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

I agree with borax99. Here in europe about 99,99% of the people don't know what a tablet pc is.
I'm about to order the Dell XT within the few days, to use it to ink pdf's for my profession. It's my first tablet ever but I can already imagine the faces of my customers when I use the tablet to take notes, fill out forms, ... on the tablet in stead of on normal paper.
For me it's also step to take to and to counter the skepticism of my clients.
I will just go for it, hope I will survive...

Tuur

Wednesday, April 09, 2008 12:04:29 PM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

This is one of the reaons that the N-trig digitizer on the Dell is interesting to me. It shows that by adding touch we can get good pen functionality too. I think touch (and soon multi-touch) will continue to be a big draw in the market, and if the solution continues to go down in cost and enables pen too, it could have the reverse effect and end up drawing more people into the inking space, since it will be there and the opportunity to try it out will arise.

But in the short term, I had the same thought about the U-Alphabet-Soup-PCs. On a $200-400 device there is not much room to include anything "extra" and most people right now have no idea a pen could be useful on these devices.

Ken Hinckley

Wednesday, April 09, 2008 12:05:52 PM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

I'm not too concerned about these devices shrinking the tablet market; they simply don't address similar needs. That is, if I'm in the market to buy a tablet, I need a digitizer and I need the portability factor of a flip screen or slate form. These devices, while small and light, don't address either of those needs.

And I would just like to note that while everyone seems to be glossing over the processor (the machines are similarly configured, besides the processor) this is a really big difference. The VIA C7 was released in 2005, and the 1.5 GHz model performs worse than Pentium M 1.1GHz ULV. I can only imagine how the base model performs. In the inkshow video, we're looking at a 0 to desktop time of over 5 minutes in Vista. I'm assuming that's the top of the line processor too.

That's another thing, whose idea was it to put Vista on these machines? Vista has NO business being on them, and people are just going to complain about performance and how Vista is such a terrible OS because the hardware can't keep up.

Antimatter

Wednesday, April 09, 2008 12:38:33 PM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

The market's focus is on Mobility. Inking is an Input mechanism. Active digitizer on the screen is one (expensive) way to achieve that input. The question is - is the high price of active digitizer a function of the technology or one of volume? Or is it an artifact of a very small number of technology providers? And how large does a screen have to be to support the activity of writing?
There is a reason why this blog is called GottaBeMobile and not GottaInk.
While agreeing that there are roles that are substantially enhanced with handwritten note-taking and/or drawing (and Warner and JK have some of those roles), the majority of roles for computers (even mobile computers), are not. History capture/memory enhancement is a significant component of only some jobs.
For me and most of my roles, Mobility wins over large (>6") screen, although I would be interested in a peripheral device that would allow me to add Inking capability when I do need/want it, especially if the price can come down from ridiculous to merely high.

Chuck

Wednesday, April 09, 2008 1:01:34 PM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

A screen doesn't need to be very large at all for good inking. I tried out an OQO Model 02 for a week. I had no problems inking with it. However, I have previous experience with a Newton which has a similar (physical) size screen. A small screen works as long as you're ok with entering a couple words at a time. If you're using a recognizer which allows you to write anywhere, then you also have to train yourself to realize that it's ok to write over existing text. (The recognizer will add text at the insert point. It doesn't matter where you ink. That's why it's "write anywhere.")

Inking is a priority for me. Really accurate handwriting recognition can be faster than a thumbboard. (It has to be really accurate though. Correction mechanisms aren't as convenient as they could be.) However, I think many people have gotten out of the habit of any extensive handwriting. They'd probably suffer along with the more familiar thumbboard (and even get good at it after a while). Certainly, if there is a real keyboard, then no contest. People will take the keyboard every time.

On top of that, add user interfaces clearly not designed for a stylus (or your finger). Paying more for inking capable hardware becomes a hard sell.

My mobile device has to have good inking. I understand, though, why it's a niche interest. I suspect that most people, even after they try it, would rather stick with a more conventional input method. (The irony, of course, is that we handwrote long before we started typing.)

Thursday, April 10, 2008 1:19:12 PM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

The market shrinks, and Appple sneaks in with an iTablet with a cool dual sided clear lid on a Mac Air style platform. No need to turn the display around at all. If they keep the weight under or about 2.5lb and it's still Air thin they could have a great winner. Screen better be at least 8.9 - 10". If vmware can work to run Vista or even native, they can help shift the market like iphone did.

Steve is salivating to unvail his version...

If Fujitsu would just put an active digitizer, webcam and verizon ev-do on the p1620 and speed it up a notch I'd hit the buy button right now. wait, we need a lowered price point as well. It's still way expensive.

Rockville

Wednesday, April 16, 2008 6:31:58 PM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

I agree. When James Kendrick ordered the Fujitsu p1620, I said "This is what I have been waiting for." Now even James is having second thoughts on the price point. I know it has kept me from ordering. I am relatively new to Tablets. I ordered my first two years ago, a Fujitsu Lifebook T4210. It was solid and well thought out. I like that the Dvd drive can be removed and a spare battery inserted. This keeps the unit compact. Unfortunately, it still was not the machine for my mobile use. Then, last fall I ordered the Samsung Q1- Ultra. Now we were talking! A light weight mobile device with a good screen. Unfortunately, the lack of a keyboard and short battery life (standard battery) affected its usefulness. I ordered an extended battery and now find I use it a lot more...but mostly for web browsing. A bluetooth keyboard helps, but my useage scenario requires me to hold the unit in my lap while sitting and is limited to 15-30 minute intervals (making use of my down time between hearings). So, the detached keyboard is not useful in this situation.

So, my hope is a HP Mini form factor that has a swivel tablet style screen and touch or multi-touch. In other words, the P1620....without the price premium. And get them to use a slice style extended battery instead of the current style that will just get in the way and take up room in a brief case or bag.

Tony

Tony

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