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Thursday, July 03, 2008

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Tablet Isn't Dead - We Just Need a Leader

- Rob Bushway

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Is that a funeral procession I hear coming down Bourbon Street, celebrating the death of Tablet PC? Absolutely not! Life in Tablet land is certainly not as vital as it should be, though, and this is a challenge the industry should take by the horns.

We've heard quite a lot from readers, GBM writers, ISVs, and hardware partners in the past week about their concerns regarding a technology we all know is superior and has so much unrealized potential. There is a lot of pent up frustration aimed toward Microsoft and OEMs, a lot of it rightly placed. For the first time, players within this space are starting to speak out, and it is eye-opening to hear from the likes of InPlay Technologies, N-Trig, and Active Ink Software confirming what many have been reluctant to talk about the past five and a half years: folks are not happy with the status quo and we want change.

We want Microsoft to publicly stand behind a technology they actively evangelized in the early years. There has been a large disconnect between Bill Gates personal passion for Tablet and what Microsoft actually does. It means putting their marketing dollars and expertise behind it. It means righting the things that are causing partners like InPlay to call Microsoft a "black hole" when it comes to innovation in the market place. It means leading by example with their own solutions and UI. It means addressing SDK issues that ISVs have. It means active change.

We want OEMs actively working with ISVs like Active Ink, Einstein Technologies, EverNote, and Bluebeam in marketing this superior technology. OEMs have their fair share of blame with the current state of affairs, and certainly have as much marketing clout as Microsoft to help right this ship. What they've done in the past certainly has not worked. I know OEMs like HP are reporting blazing sales of tablets like the TX2500, but I wonder how many folks actually know there is a pen in that thing and are aware of the software and experiences that await them. The Mobile PC space seems to be leaving Tablet behind, and it should be the other way around: tablet technology should be the leading driver in mobile computing.

I seriously believe that a mini-summit of sorts is needed, bringing the likes of Microsoft's Windows team, Microsoft's marketing team, Microsoft's Office team, Toshiba, Motion, Fujitsu, Dell, N-Trig, Wacom, InPlay, ISVs, GottaBeMobile.com, MVPs, a segment of users, and resellers to the table to openly address the state of the industry and where we take things from here. There doesn't seem to be a unified vision, a leader if you will, taking us all to the promised land. We lack vision and are sorely in need of a leader.

These are definite challenges, and every technology solution faces them, especially ones like tablet that threatens to change the way people think about interacting with a computer. They are paradigm shifts in thinking that often take years to come about. The struggle is keeping the momentum, excitement, and focus during the years that it takes for a technology to finally take hold. I'm still very excited about Tablet PC, but am frustrated at the state it finds itself in right now.

Don't break out the black suit, drums, and saxaphone just yet - Tablet isn't dead and it won't be dying any time soon. We just gotta get that jazz band playing a new tune.

Technorati Tags: Tablet PC, Microsoft, Dell, Fujitsu, InPlay, N-Trig, Wacom

Editorials | Rob Bushway | Tablet PC

7/3/2008 7:40 AM MST

Tablet Isn't Dead - We Just Need a Leader Comments [14] | Digg This | del.icio.us | Citations

Thursday, July 03, 2008 7:53:56 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

Excellent words Rob. I especially liked this comment, "but I wonder how many folks actually know there is a pen in that thing and are aware of the software and experiences that await them." The university I went to works quite closely with HP to try out some of their new offerings, which included several tablet pcs. When I graduated, most of the professors had access to a tablet, but it seemed the only software they knew anything about was a product called DyKnow. I think that was only because we were also a trial school for their software. Multiple times I had one-on-one conversations with professors about what software they used on their tablets and I never came across one that could name off programs they liked to use on their tablet aside from DyKnow. I think this is somewhat notable in the sense that the only time they used their tablets, they were in class, and the minute they left class, they switched back to their normal laptops. I've seen this same trend across the company I work for. I take my tablet to meetings and have it out in the lab and people can't seem to grasp what I could possibly be using it for. Until the screen gets flipped around, it's just a normal laptop to everyone but myself.

patecd

Thursday, July 03, 2008 8:13:50 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

For tablet to succeed, it has to happen on the low end devices. That's where people are willing to take a risk and try out new concepts because it's sooo cheap. And we need a cheap active digitizer for the small devices.

If they would take the ink improvements from Vista, roll them into an XP service pack and make it a default in the OS they could offer a real alternative to linux on the small devices. Tablet does not need a stand alone SKU, the price difference between XP home and Tablet addition is just too much on an eee type device. The OS should also be optimized for flash based devices, to improve performance and battery life. Instant on, Instant sleep, 20 sec hibernate would be ideal.

The $2000-$3000 tablets are not going to take tablet mainstream. HP has probably done more with the TX line to bring folks to tablet, just because of the combination of price-point and performance, than all the others combined. Microsoft seems to be content with allowing tablet to be a vertical niche product, and that mentality will bite them when Linux or Apple perfects ink and touch. Suddenly it will be a pervasive technology and they will have missed the boat AGAIN.

Apple has shown the people like the concept of touch and point interaction, Microsoft could take the lead and really start a tablet resurgence with lots of touchscreen, low end devices running XP.
Vista is a dead end, and Linux is killing them on the low end devices. The changes on the XP Home license yesterday were a good start, but they need to go further to make them a success.

And I'll say it again, give us a true notepad replacement device. Instant On, Instant Sleep, 5x8" form factor that inks well and has a full day of battery life. Microsoft should be sponsoring reference designs to get that kind of device to market, the perfect PC companion and the paper notebook replacement. Someone will make it, without real changes, it will be running Linux or Leopard.

jberger

Thursday, July 03, 2008 8:22:12 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

I find it ironic that all this death talk is coming the same week that I'm finding new life in the form factor. Maybe referring to ritePen + nirCmd as "killer" isn't coming across the way I intended. :)

(BTW, I just found the xml file for ritePen macros. Puts me another step closer to my vision of true "Ink Command".)

Sumocat

Thursday, July 03, 2008 8:30:25 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

I think that's an excellent point, jberger. I find myself forgetting about the concept of instant-on, probably because my tablet's always on. I think your phrase of "PC companion" is interesting though. It sounds like there are two variations of what a "tablet" is. Is your thought that once people see the notepad replacement, or use one, they'll want to get the "upgrade" in addition? I guess what I'm wondering about is, if the focus shifted mainly to low-end devices, would be end up losing on the upper-end even more. This doesn't at all mean that I don't agree with your idea. I'm just throwing out things in my head.

patecd

Thursday, July 03, 2008 9:04:41 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

Well, now that Bill Gates is spending more time wth his foundations, maybe he could provide free or low-cost tablets nto elementay and secondary schools like Mac did. When children show the way, get them used to and enjoyng tablets and everything else will follow.

AZhiker

Thursday, July 03, 2008 9:10:17 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

I've been using a tablet since 2004. The one question I get from people is ,WHY? Tablets are still seen as a techie's toy. I constantly hear "My notepads don't crash", "My notepad battery lasts all day" or "I can type faster than I can write"

People don't see the benefit of a tablet and at prices from $1,000 on up, they are unwilling to test the waters. Heck, I'm guilty of that myself. I didn't start using a tablet until I found a good deal on ebay.

Marketing a price reduction are the issues.

TateJ

Thursday, July 03, 2008 9:40:53 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

I really think that Apple should get into the game... I think that that would help. Most of the people I talk to, friends and such, think that tablets are nice, but that inking is just: A) an expensive toy, or B) a technical business tool.

There's this stigma that the device is too-fragile, too-expensive, or too-impractical for "general use," and gamers don't like tablets because, well, there's no distinct advantages. I could think of a few; for instance, a shooting game, a user could touch or point to a target... but tablet graphics aren't usually strong enough to run popular games.

It'd be nice if more software developers got into the game, and that's where I think the issue is. People aren't about to trust Microsoft with software development after Vista, but Apple... they're all about great user experience and have a lot of third-party developers dedicated to creating great apps.

Even before iPhone 2.0, people were creating apps for jailbreak'd phones... the preview of iPhone 2.0 software is promising, and i think that if Apple had a tablet device, it'd revolutionize the market and bring tablet computing to the masses.

Bradtastic

Thursday, July 03, 2008 10:14:09 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

The only candidate for "leader" that meets the qualifications is APPLE. The tablet needs to have close integration of the OS and hardware and apple is the only company that can deliver.
The tablet hardware manufacturers are waiting for Microsoft to deliver the OS and they (MS) can't get their act together and work with the hardware people. They never have.

wls

Thursday, July 03, 2008 10:26:18 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

I don't work for MS or anything, but I do think that's a harsh statement to make. Sure, MS and other OEMs seem to be a large part of the problem, but I wouldn't say that MS can't deliver. They already have. I don't see an Apple tablet on the market at the present time. Microsoft works with hardware manufacturers every day. They don't get the luxury of being able to support only internal hardware that they created. Perhaps they need to improve on how well they work with the OEMs, but I don't think it's all MS. This isn't at all to say that if Apple released a tablet, it wouldn't get all sorts of hype and recognition and be an overly qualified candidate. But really...if, as these other folks are saying, price is the issue, Apple won't be leading.

patecd

Thursday, July 03, 2008 12:42:25 PM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

Rob, I think your wondering how many of the purchasers of TX2500's know there is a pen is misplaced. I would be willing to bet that almost all of them do.

However, I think it is likely that most of them do not use the pen much at first, if at all.

The predominantly younger people who buy these machines (this is a guess at the demographic, but it's a reasoned guess) have been raised on keyboards.

It will take a while for enough of them to experiment with the pen to find its use.

However, this kind of lower-priced, feature-filled machine is the only way that tablet pc's are going to get going. The $500-1000 premium that used to typify tablets simply was too much. It still is. For someone who hasn't experienced the benefit of tablet use, why would one pay that extra amount. It's not exactly beer money. Frankly, I think MS is blowing it here. Rather than limit the machines that can use active digitizers, they should be encouraging them, since this is an area where Apple does not tread and Linux is weak.

Get the prices down, and tablets will be fine.

Paul Harrigan

Thursday, July 03, 2008 12:44:18 PM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

As a tablet pc user I support this article, it's time something is done to coordinate things and take action. I believe the technology and knowhow is already there, but too much is focused on the hype and selling point.

As a tablet pc user I have seen great bennefits of the ability to write in ink that can be translated to text. I like the instant, threshold free writing anywhere. Sure I still type faster, but when on the job or on the go I always have to think of a moment to sit and focus on typing. With ink capability I can easily write on the spot. The ink-to-text conversion does the rest. The current problem, as pointed out many times before on GBM is that the tablet is not ink friendly enough. More focus is tablet society should be focused on improving ink friendliness and better ink-to-text recognition, in my case also with multilingual support.

It is now time to get together and combine things. It will be a big improvement in the current use of tablet technology and perhaps an environmental bennefit (no new large energy-costly investment, but using what you already have).

Medic

Thursday, July 03, 2008 12:58:58 PM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

Interesting article Rob, I agree with you. We need to work together to improve the tablet PC. There is still a lot of room for it to improve.

Shan Gee

Thursday, July 03, 2008 8:35:48 PM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

Why is this debate even happening when the entire industry is rushing away from all things Windows and Microsoft? What is the point of promoting a better way to interface with Windoze when even Joe Public has bought the argument that Vista is a dog and won't go near it? Tablet may have some great ideas that can be applied to pen-based interfaces, but expect to see those breaking big on netbooks or Linux-based UIs, not on old-style tablets.

The story directly above this one is a big roundup of the netbook "craze". Which is happening because ordinary users finally have a platform that allows them to assert their preferences for what they want to do, rather than dragooning them into some Moores-Law driven corporate greed stampede of ever more expensive and pointless upgrades. Intel's MID platform also happens to be a great - touchscreen-driven - attempt to give the public an even cheaper and more versatile way to do everything computer-related that matters to them, and forget the rest. Tablet is just a subset of touchscreen, and the iPhone and UMPCs have already snatched that ball and are running with it over the horizon.

And for the record, I'm a contented Vista UMPC user - but not a blind one.

Paul Mackintosh

Friday, July 04, 2008 6:45:56 AM (Mountain Daylight Time, UTC-06:00)

I would not say that the entire market is rushing away from Microsoft or Windows. The consumer space is seeing quite a bit of diversification - and long may it continue as I think it will drive innovation. However in the corporate space both Vista and tablet are enjoying quite good growth. Certianly I am seeing more of both in my work life.

Craig Pringle

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