Grading My 2009 Predictions

Taking a look at Warner’s scores for his 2009 predictions prompted me to review and grade my own thoughts regarding what I thought would happen throughout this past year.  Read below to examine what I thought 2009 would hold in the tech world.  Here were my predictions and what actually happened.  Check below to see my final grade.

Mobile Computing

  • The term netbook becomes a household name because many homes have adopted one or two as a second computer, child computer, or mobile companion.  Features, build quality, and battery life improve while price points still hover around $350.  More options for Integrated, 3G wireless develop with mixed reviews. (Mostly correct.  2009 has certainly been the year that the netbook went mainstream.  My cousin and my parents both purchased netbooks because of their portability and cheap prices.  Retail outlets regularly use the term netbook in their promotional material.)

  • MIDs struggle to exist as competition from netbooks, the iPod/iTouch/advanced personal media players (PMPs), and cell phones dominate.  The high price factor and impracticality prevent widespread adoption. (Correct.  MIDS are still a lot of fun to play with, but they’ve laregly been overshadowed by the smartphone market.)

Tablet Computing

  • Atom-based Tablet PCs like the 3rd generation Intel Classmate PC begin to flourish and become popular in the school setting and start to trickle into the consumer market. (Correct although the introduction of these devices did not have major impact on the consumer market.  Like the traditional Tablet PC, these devices have yet to find widespread adoption.)
  • Tablet PCs obtain better and more sophisticated multi-touch support. (True, but there have been many disappointing struggles and prodding from consumers for support.)
  • The TechCrunch tablet grows from the original prototype, but the price is higher than anticipated and doesn’t experience success due to competition from the iPhone/iTouch and the flood of netbooks.  Look to Nokia for a Tablet that is inspired by the simplicity/hardware of a netbook and could have success if the price is right. (Wow, didn’t predict the implosion that would occur with the CrunchPad.  Despite the crazy events, it has yet to experience success and priced way too high.  Nokia has also failed to fully deliver.)
  • Traditional Tablet PCs continue to be overpriced and marketed as business niche. (No surprise here.)

Hardware

  • Other laptop manufacturers follow Apple’s lead and implement multi-touch trackpad support but keep the button(s). (Correct)
  • HDTV prices will drop as the DTV transition takes place, and more people will use their HDTVs as the entrance to their Internet and media world (see general computing space, below).  (Correct.  Prices of HDTVs have dropped significantly but we have not yet seen the Internet + TV marriage which is yet to come.)
  • Battery life will increase and manufacturer’s will release true all-day computing in a package that isn’t ugly or extra heavy.  However, consumers will still pay substantially more for the extra hours of juice.  (Correct.  Netbooks and the Intel Atom processor finally introduced mainstream and affordable “all-day” computing.  Despite the extra hours of usage available from of all-day computing, statements from manufacturers remain unrealistic.  Battery life standards must be established.)
  • The push to USB 3.0 begins, although the standard does not experience widespread implementation until late 2009/early 2010. (Yep, this one is happening now.  Expect to see many more USB 3.0 devices in 2010.)
  • Green technology continues to be popular but is under implemented, mostly used as novelty, and expensive. Computer manufacturers focus primarily on reducing overall power consumption, using SSDs, and LEDs.  (Correct)

Software

  • The push towards cloud services continues and features improve greatly, but consumers are still more comfortable using local software that always works regardless of an Internet connection.  File synchronization options like Windows Live Mesh improve in terms of features, reliability and grow in popularity.  (Correct)
  • Social networking sites like FaceBook and LinkedIn continue to flourish, becoming even more socially accepted among adults and non-tech geeks.  (Correct.  Even my parents now have FaceBook! Ahh!)
  • Additional builds of Windows 7 receive favorable reviews for being lightweight, battery friendly, stable, and featuring full tablet/inking capabilities. (Correct)

General Computing Space

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  • The bridge from computers to the television begins to be strengthened and devices such as the Apple TV, TiVo, and Slingbox become more like slimmed down PCs for your TV rather than a device that simply redirects your media.  Similar to Microsoft’s WebTV in terms of user experience but much more advanced, consumers begin to see the potential of having a nettop device hooked up to their television. Nettop manufacturer’s will advertise the nettop as the cheap, media center PC for your TV. (Yes, but this didn’t really develop.  I still feel this is the ultimate route for the television, but it will take more time, better hardware, and well designed software for this to occur.)
  • Traditional news and media outlets will experience continued decline in reader/viewership as Internet-based news and entertainment services/sites, such as Hulu.com (free) and Netflix (not free), continue to expand in popularity.  (Yep)
  • A few companies that you should definitely keep an eye on: Apple, Nokia, and Palm.  Apple will of course continue to push their iTunes platform and the iPhone/iTouch.  Nokia and Palm (they’ll have new life and new products) as well as other manufacturers will begin to produce devices that merge the usefulness of netbooks with the form factor, call quality, and Internet capabilities of cell phones.  WiMax will become the word of ’09.  (So, WiMax wasn’t much of a news maker.  Apple continued to dominate, Nokia seems dormant, and Palm found new life with Web OS and the Pre.)

Overall, I’d feel that an A- would suit these predictions.  Nostradamus would be proud.  Play teacher and leave your grade for my 2009 predictions in the comments.

  

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