Android to Take 50% of iPad 2′s Market Share? I don’t think so…

After playing around with the Motorola Xoom extensively for a couple of weeks, I can assure you that average consumers simply won’t be picking Android tablets over the iPad 2. It’s not a matter of specs or operating systems, it’s common sense. A lot of people are throwing around numbers and sales estimates for the Motorola Xoom and the ensuing flood of Android tablets. I think the impact of the introduction of 10-inch Android tablets will have a minimal impact on the iPad 2 this year unless some serious work is done in the UI and Android app development arenas.

My friend Sascha Pallenberg from Netbook News chatted with uber-blogger Robert Scoble about tablets at SXSW and Sascha predicts that Android  tablets will take 50% of the iPad’s market share by the end of the year. I have a lot of respect for Sascha, but he’s dead wrong on this point. Geeks and Android fanboys might choose a Xoom over an iPad 2, but consumers are completely content with the iPad and iPad 2. The Motorola Xoom is a half-baked device and it’s clear that the Android tablet ecosystem is at least a year off.

Perhaps the most obvious reason people won’t buy the Xoom, 10″ Dell Streak or other Android tablet in the near future is price. If manufacturers hope to beat the iPad 2, they’re going to have to find a way to beat the iPad 2 in the price game. You can analyze Android tablet prices any way you want, but the fact remains that the iPad 2 is the cheapest tablet on the market. Introducing more WiFi-only Android tablet options may help, but the problem with that strategy is that nobody has much incentive to sell the 3G/4G-less tablets. Verizon, AT&T, Best Buy and Sprint sell tablets in order to drum up subscribers, which of course means there will be very few places selling pushing WiFi-only Android tablets.

The other major problem is that average consumers just can’t do much with a Xoom or similar device out of the box. On the other hand, iPad 2 users are overwhelmed with choices. They can choose to stream movies over Netflix, rent them in iTunes or watch all the TV shows and movies they want from Time Warner or Comcast/Xfinity. Motorola Xoom buyers can choose from a total of 16 apps designed for tablets in the Android Market.

The price differential between the iPad 2 and Android tablets is even more noticeable when consumers are going the 3G route. Android tablets require a two-year wireless contract that can cost much, much more than the tablets themselves. The iPad 2 WiFi + 3G offers month-to-month 3G service and consumers can turn the service on and off whenever they choose.

Competition is good and I do hope that the Android tablet ecosystem grows. But 2011 is not going to be the year that consumers start buying Honeycomb devices. I’ve yet to see a single Xoom out on the streets of San Francsico or Silicon Valley. The Dell Streak 10 is going to be virtually a clone of the Xoom and I don’t expect it to make any serious headway.

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What do you think? Will Android tablets start eating into iPad 2′s dominating marketshare? Or is the iPad the next iPod?

  

Comments

  1. wanna bet says

    Yeah, just like the iPhone is still way ahead of Android phones. . . .
    oh wait. . . sorry I forgot that Android is the #1 mobile os in the world–including US and Europe.

    So. . . yeah, this will be different. . .. yeah, the iPad is now like the iPod. . . and it will dominate because prices won’t change on Android tablets. . .

    Wanna bet? I got $10K I’ll put on it ;)
    Q42011 Android tablets outsell iPads. . .

    • Xavier Lanier says

      Android OS on smartphones are certainly taking off like rockets, but I don’t that success isn’t going to immediately translate over to tablet sales.
      If you want to bet $10k on it, simply short Apple’s stock or play some options.

      • Honeycomb_FTW says

        Apple’s stock would not necessarily be affected by Android outselling iPads by the end of 2011 ;)

        Both could just increase in sales. . . one does not necessarily have to “kill” or reduce sales of the other. So, shorting Apple’s stock isn’t the same bet :D

    • PJ says

      The author emphasized that one of the success factors for IPad is its price. It is not the case with android smart phones most of which are cheaper than iPhone.

      • Honeycomb_FTW says

        Currently one of the success factors is the iPad’s price–that may not last, though it may but we won’t know till there are more Android tablets on the market.

        At least we know that Samsung will match the price with better spec devices and have some lower priced ones as well.

        Don’t forget that Apple sells the older gen iPhone for $49. . . and don’t some of the carriers give it away at times? ;)

        And many Android phones are more expensive than the iPhone. . . and I’m sure if Apple wanted they could sell the iPhone for less ;) . . . it’s not Android’s fault Apple has but one phone line with few pricing options. In other words, the pricing argument is going to work about as well with tablets as it has with smartphones. . . but hey, I’m willing to wait and see how it plays out.

    • NookTablet says

      WOW. . . with the new update to the Nook Color it’s every bit of a tablet and will support things the iPad doesn’t. . .

      And it supposedly has 50% of the US/North American “tablet” market. That would make it the top selling “tablet” in the states. . .

      It’s all about “defining the category” isn’t it.

      • Anonymous says

        Uh, no. B&N have sold 3.5 million Nook Colors, comparing to 20-25 million iPads (1st and 2nd).

    • pogi says

      i think thats because android is an open source and used by a lot of phone makers compared to iOS which is only used by Apple.

      1 vs 100

  2. bradhauser says

    how can you post an article and not have any basis or factual evidence to back it?

    pay attention to tech then write an article, its that simple.

    yes the “i” devices appeal to the masses but to say that the android OS needs tons of work is a total ignorant statement.

    • Xavier Lanier says

      The basis for this article is the fact Android devices are too expensive in their current state and nobody’s buying the Xoom outside of early adopters. As I pointed out in my review of the Xoom, there’s definitely potential, but the device was clearly rushed out the door. At the moment, there isn’t an Android tablet that holds a candle to the iPad 2 in terms of real-world usability and flexibility.

      • Pricklepantz says

        I think what your friend was referring to is totally unrelated about the price while your argument there is about iPad being the cheapest. out of common sense. I agree with your friend.

      • bradhauser says

        i can agree on pricing, motorola botched their entry tablet by making it too expensive but what does that have to do with android as an OS?

        from the early days of android in the smartphone world up until now we have seen it grow exponentially. im not an apple basher by any means but the reason the ipad appeals to the masses is because it is a big iphone and they are already comfortable using it.

        my previous comment was just asking how honeycomb is not usable. just because someone is used to “i” products doesnt mean its the only OS out there..

    • Xavier is right says

      What are you talking about evidence? He said he extensively tested the Xoom for several weeks and didn’t think mass users would use it. If you want evidence then start a poll, and the iPad will win. Because the statement android needs a lot of work is NOT ignorant. You’re ignorant if you think any operating system can’t improve itself at any point. Your also ignorant if you think honeycomb doesn’t need work. The framework is there, but it’s still so raw you might as well as chop your fingers off and try to use it.

      • bradhauser says

        how is honeycomb still raw? and yes every OS could always improve. i am talking about examples of why its raw, evidence was a bad word to use.

        anyone can just shove a easy statement of opinion down everyones throat but without giving examples of why you think the OS isnt finished your comments arent credible.

      • Honeycomb_FTW says

        Didn’t tech “reviewers” say something similar about the iPhone and Android not succeeding. . . and many other very successful devices? But this review/reviewer is different this time? OK. . . we’ll see ;)

  3. savagemike says

    The future remains to be seen.
    It is an easy side to take that the established behemoth will not be affected much by the newborn.

    BUT – and it’s a big ‘but’ – you make the point that a lot of work will have to be done on android before it could accomplish this or that.
    But speedy development has been exactly what has gone on with android.
    Not just speedy development but a complete willingness to reassess and change rather than dogmatically sticking to something.

    Even in your review of xoom you pointed out the e-mail app was better than the iOS version.
    When the newborn comes out of the gate with a cornerstone app which has more capability than the very mature app of the behemoth it should give you pause to consider frankly.

    • Xavier Lanier says

      Yes, there are definitely bright spots within Honeycomb and I did like the email client much more than the iPad’s. That’s not enough though and people want the whole package…at a reasonable price.

  4. iheke says

    I’m with the majority on this one. In fact, I think its probably fair to say that Apple provided the ladder that Google are going to climb to increase their market share. Apple says “its all about content consumption” – well, erm – if that’s the case then Android tabs will be capable of music and video out the box, Google books online or Amazon’s Kindle via an app and gaming via playstation suite or a number of flash games providers. As the product category remains loosely defined – its a consumers choice and you’re not particularly locked into any platform – which of course gives WebOS and RIM a shot at the consumer too. That said power users, and content creators will remain on iOS as the quality of content creating apps are better.

  5. Anonymous says

    were you one of those who were saying : “i don’t think so” when people were telling them that Android devices will beat iOS devices very soon?

    with Apple defenders, its always like deja vue…

  6. Swwbbp says

    Folks it’s simple, The Ipad is a Media device above all and Android still has only crappy ways of getting media for thier devices. Say what you will about Itunes, but my Grandma can get music and movis onto and Apple device, and I finally got my wife an IPhone because she couldn’t get content for her droid without converting it 100 ways from Sunday.

    Android followers go for power, but the average consumer goes for ease of use. Apple has everyone beat there and for Android to get to that point they would have to dumb thier product down to the point where folks like me don’t like it, and come up with a media interface that is worth a crap… But that would mean Google would have to take things off of the “cloud” which for them would be worse than just sucking…

    • Stealthrecon says

      Android itunes integration App is called doubleTwist. It works perfectly and easily. Do 5 minutes worth of research before making your wife give up the better device!

    • Michael Lynn says

      Apple has everyone beat for ease of use, but people realize there is a better choice and are making that choice for their phone. Hence the Android phone market share.

      The tablet market will be just the same because Google will make real improvements from their first tablet OS to their second unlike Apple.

      Case and point:
      the original iPhone was great in its day.
      the iPhone 3G had basically minor updates and the 3G capability that should have been on the original. the 3GS really only had minor updates as well.
      The iPhone 4, with the exception of the screen, still not a vast improvement.

      In the end Apple’s biggest downfall is that they are one manufacturer and the only manufacturer that uses iOS. The market for Android tablets will fill pretty quickly and prices will drop significantly and iPad will be seen as the overpriced dull toy that it is. Exciting when it was new and shiny, but trying to catch up to the lower priced better spec competitors.

  7. Themave says

    He is completely right, I have an Adam tablet, and beleive me, it is so far behind the ipad as to not even be on the radar screen, the big advantage of the xoom is flash and it doesn’t even really work yet.

    sure over time android will have a nice tablet and will compete well with the ipad, but it is not going to be this year, The first quarter ends in 9 days,

    Android may have 50% of the tablet sales in December for the month, but for the year, they won’t be close to that number.

  8. dstrauss says

    Xavier is right on this one and you guys will be eating crow this time next year, as Android and all the other tablet wannabes manages to MAYBE eke out 20% of the market. For those who think I am stuffed full of wild blueberries, check out Mossberg and Carr on Charlie Rose last week and see how they were laughed off the stage this time last year for their praise of teh iPad and who’s laughing now. As for your arguments:

    1. This is not the smartphone market, but much more akin to the MP3 player. Like the iPod, the iPad literally created the category (after nearly 9 years of Microsoft frustration), and has built a lead based on the fact that the competitors barely match the iPad 1, much less the iPad 2 (DISCLAIMER TIME – the only Apple device I own is my iPhone 4).

    2. The iPhone took charge of an existing market and still maintains a strong position. Rather than touting the superiority of the growing tide of Android phones, how about addressing the fact that there are NUMEROUS manufacturers of Android hardware, but only one iOS manufacturer.

    3. Apple is already selling MORE of its second generation devices than the first generation Android ones, many of which are yet to see the light of day.

    4. I have used both Froyo and Honecomb on the Android devices, and it is clear that these are perfect for the tinkering set that just love to customize their devices (you knw, the ones who used Active Desktop to endlessly change their Windows desktop experience). As Xavier noted, they ARE NOT ready for primetime consumer use.

    5. PRICE! How can Moto, Samsung, Toshiba, HP and others ever hope to sell a volume of iPad wannabees at prices that are at, or even exceed, the iPad 2 pricing? The consumer is going to be hard pressed not to buy the “real thing” with no price differential.

  9. Roberto says

    Give it time. It took awhile for phones, it will take a while for tablets. Apple will shoot themselves in the foot as they always do with all their controls and lack of connectivity to other things. Xoom or any Android tablet may not be there yet, but they will be, and they will cheaper in the end, and they will do what the user wants to do with them, not what Apple will let you do. And in the end it’s a numbers game. Way more people will manufacture Android and you have only one for Apple. People will point to I-pod as a case for tablets, but I would argue it was I-tunes that gave the I-pod it’s dominance, not the I-pod. And in the end I-pod replaced walkmans. I’m not sure what a tablet might replace, if it replaces anything. This leads me to believe that tablets would play out a little different as hopefully they become more than just media content consumer device and evolve into something you can do real computing on. I mean really, the fact that you have to plug your I-pad into a computer to get stuff on & off is a fail in my department. Sort of takes away from Job’s idea of a post PC world…

  10. Candrsn says

    I work in the mobile computer field and I agree with this article. Apple has the price and app ecosystem advantage, neither of which they really had with the first iPhones.

    Also, Apple is one generation ahead in the tablet world. Maintaining battery life while decreasing the product thickness is a tough task. Motorola and Samsung are far behind in this area and no gimmicky (at best) Android OS will help that cause, and the lack of good OS/hw integration will only make the design challenge that much harder.

    The irony for Android *geeks* is that the geeks at Apple are a heck of a lot brighter than you give them credit for.

    Me……I work with Windows Mobile……

    • Honeycomb_FTW says

      “Also, Apple is one generation ahead in the tablet world. Maintaining battery life while decreasing the product thickness is a tough task.”

      Apparently it isn’t too tough. . . Samsung didn’t take to long to do it ;)

      • Anonymous says

        …on non-working prototype dummies.

        And as far as I can tell, Samsung didn’t take too long yet, since they’re still not finished.

        • Honeycomb_FTW says

          You may want to search for more videos. . . there are working prototypes. Yes, they do have some “fake” devices under glass for display. For the most part the hardware is finished. They may update the SoC from rumors I’ve heard but that’s it. What isn’t finished is TouchWiz 4.0–there’s still some things they are working on adding.

  11. Thejudge says

    At this stage I can still see ipad dominating. Android have too many coming soon features.

    There are more apps available right now and in the foreseeable future.

    The price point of the android tablets is not competitive enough and finally the apple behemoth actually know how to market their products to the majority.

    I mean FaceTime … Seriously? Video chats have been around for ages, yet apple rebranded, changed it slightly and called it a totally new and innovative. I think I spewed a little in my mouth when I saw that video for the first time.

    The casing point, they know how to launch and market their products. As long as they continue on this direction they will remain the innovators and market leaders in the iPad.

    • Anonymous says

      Casing point lol. It always amuses me to see people online attempt to spell a word or phrase based on how they *think its spelled. No better way to exhibit ignorance.

      • dstrauss says

        Don’t be so judgmental; even in error it could be an apt analogy because the Apple iPad is at “the casing point.” If it were an oil or gas well, Apple is about to complete the well and “blow out” the competition.

  12. Epgomez says

    I think you’re wrong. Down the road honeycomb tablets will overtake the ipad just like what happen to android versus the iphone. Yeah the motorola xoom will be lackluster on sales but come all manufacturers with nice android tablets and competitve prices and being mature down the road the tables are going to turn given apples’ communist approach to things.

  13. Anonymous says

    The iPad is a true media consumption device, it is not a phone. The phone market is fundamentally different. Swwppd is right. In fact, the biggest mistake the Android tablet makers are making is trying to sell these devices through cell phone companies. The iPad is more analogous to a TV/stereo/game system than a phone. Dell, Motorola, Samsung and others need to develop a much better sales channel for their devices. Oddly enough, the iPad is a mobile device, but it never leaves my house. I occasionally use it for work stuff, but most people use it to play games, watch videos or surf the internet while watching TV at home. Google has to develop a competitor to iTunes for the Android Tablets to more competitive. Whether or not the Android Tablets hardware is better is irrelevant in this battle, it’s all about media. That’s not going to be easy for Google and Apple has a massive head start with iTunes. I don’t doubt the technical promise of the Android Tablets, but until they the media stuff right they will not successfully compete for the casual (most the people who buy stuff) user.

  14. IceBeam says

    “Perhaps the most obvious reason people won’t buy the Xoom, 10″ Dell Streak or other Android tablet in the near future is price”
    And that is the only reason – most people are poor, but for some price doesn’t matter.

    “consumers are completely content with the iPad and iPad 2″

    That is bullshit, you don’t know what “consumers” want – you know that a lot of apple fans have bought these devices. Which was predictable, but there are millions more android users out there, and they are all going to consider Android tablets first, since they can use all their apps on it (and talk about them not working on tablets are just scare mongering), and if they have bought apps from the android market they would have to wave goodbye to them if they go to and ipad which isn’t at all compatible with Android apps – nor is the google integration as good.

    So a lot of people are going to go wait until they can get an Android tablet, not just settle for an Ipad

      • savagemike says

        It is.
        Apple is doing well.
        It is also silly to discount the android tablet market before it even really launches.
        If in a year or two the numbers are still as they are now then your points will have better foundation.

    • Ebizexec says

      There are very few paid application offered on the Android market. It is a well documented fact. The switching costs to go with iPhone or iPad is not that high. Not the case with Apple, where developers actually make money and there is a stickiness factor, which benefits content providers and developers who participate in the Apple ecosystem. For the “poor folks” they can buy an iPad at a much lower price than any available Android product starting at $400, or less on the secondary market. Come on, man. Don’t let your religious fervor for Android cloud your judgment and perspective. Android is not all that, and neither is the Xoom. If you like it, get it, but don’t pontificate. There are plenty, and many more, happy iPad owners. Apple has the best customer service and support. There will be plenty of very satisfied Apple customers. Your futile rants won’t change that fact that the iPad is going to be fine. Worry about the fact that Motorola has not generated enough business to provide support for the Xoom for very long if sales continue to be as poor as they are. 2 units a day at Costco. That’s pretty bad!

  15. AimlessCodeMonkey says

    Honestly manufacturers don’t profit as much from the android tablets cuz revenue switches too many hands (i.e. Motorola doesn’t profit much from android market place) Apple can follow the console model: low to no profit margin and make a killing from the 30% of each app and in-app microtransaction.

    • savagemike says

      Google makes its fortunes elsewhere and could easily afford to modify its model to give makers a piece of the app pie.
      The full boat, no.
      But perhaps enough to make it very profitable to play that way for them.

    • Honeycomb_FTW says

      Doesn’t Apple keep saying they aren’t making any significant revenue off the app store? yet I read this same argument from Apple fans. . . which is it? Is Apple hiding that revenue stream or are Apple fans right and Apple is making a killing off the App store?

  16. AimlessCodeMonkey says

    Honestly manufacturers don’t profit as much from the android tablets cuz revenue switches too many hands (i.e. Motorola doesn’t profit much from android market place) Apple can follow the console model: low to no profit margin and make a killing from the 30% of each app and in-app microtransaction.

  17. Ebizexec says

    I went to Costco yesterday and asked the cell phone sales guys how many Xooms they are selling. He told me 16 a week! He represented that number as flying off the shelf! He was an obvious Android fanboy. He had nothing to good to say about the iPad and was spewing misinformation to customers. But the few people who took a look at the Xoom didn’t see it as being better than their iPad, nor were they particularly impressed. I thought it screen looked smaller than my iPad, in fact given the aspect ratio, the iPad has more screen area. This market is not the cell phone market for sure. It is very different. The fact that Motorola tied their 3G service to Verizon is the dumbest thing I have ever seen a company do. They received none of the benefits Apple did tying themselves to AT&T, which was to have full autonomy of their platform. Now Apple’s powerful carrier relationship model has ported over to Verizon. Whether you are a Verizon, AT&T or soon to be T-Mobile customer, you get the same experience. You can’t say that about Android. There are actually hundreds of variations of Android out there that have been bastardized by carriers sitting on suboptimized hardware platforms. What does that amount to? A sub par user experience and crappy support. Remember, Android’s growth is attributed to the lack of the iPhone on the carriers that didn’t have the iPhone. As much as Android fanboys will deny it, it is a fact. One of Apple’s big pushes this year is to expand their carrier base, which will slow Android’s growth, especially when the iPhone 5 comes out. I think you will see many folks switch back to iPhone. Also consider that with over 200 million registered users on iTunes, Apple has the largest number of credit cards ready for mobile payments, which will likely replace your wallet in the next 5 years. There is no doubt Android and the devices that they sit on are cool, but they are not necessarily superior to Apple’s products or integrated services and content. Besides, there are plenty of people who will pick up the iPhone 3GS at $50 bucks, so Apple’s pricing is actually very competitive to anything that the Android competition offers. Not everyone is able to afford a $400 smartphone. Economy of scale is also on the side of Apple and has afforded Apple a superior financial position compared to its Android competition. While the collective Android device manufacturers compete amongst themselves and Apple, they will burn significantly more in marketing while realizing smaller gross margins. Something will have to give; price, quality of products, service. Let’s not mention the fragmented Android ecosystem, the security and malware issues. The ecosystem my be great for geeks, but the average consumer could careless about wading through various content networks and figuring things out. Apple will release figures that will floor the Android proponents. They will be shocking and will give Apple an iPod type lead that they will keep for a long time, at least until the market matures and Apple introduces the next evolution of computing. Afterall, that is what they do, and what they do best. The depth of Steve Job’s genius is beyond what most of you will know. Most of you don’t understand or know the megatrends that will define the future of mobile computing. Steve Jobs has and does. Apple is strategically positioned to dominiate and they are doing it with a superior ecosystem and very high-quality products. The competition has to realize that the game is not about OS or hardware. It’s about providing consumers with integrated services and content.

    • savagemike says

      That’s a nice story.
      But what is today may not be what is tomorrow.

      I personally would be a little surprised at android taking 50% of the market share from apple this year for tablets.
      However, I would be even more surprised if this did not happen at some point relatively soon.
      Android is a juggernaut and competition among hardware makers will ensure that the crop of android tablets is almost always batting well against apple hardware going forward.

      Ipad 2 is nice and slim and has good battery life. the garageband app will be a killer app for a lot of poeple and nothing on anroid compares.

      Coming android tablets, we’ll have to see. One thing seems to be clear and that is that some will have typcial industry ports on them and not require dongles to hook up to usb or hdmi. They will also have SD slots on some. Those will be killer features to some people. Size and battery life remain to be seen.

      In the end, if apple (or apple fans) think the coming android tablet influx will not be a game changer to apple then they are just not thinking clearly.
      Will they definitely be better than ipad.
      I would not say definitely.
      Will ipad definitely be better than them.
      Again – I would not say definitely.

      What they will be is very viable competition.
      Maybe not this month.
      Maybe not even next month.
      Maybe not even this year.
      But it will happen, and relatively soon.

  18. mike ddd says

    My prediction, android will take over apple in the tablet market by the end of the year. But if I am wrong on that, at least the year after that. No, it won’t be the Xoom that does it, an overpriced toy that only an android fanboy would buy, but probably some other android based tablet later this year which won’t cost $600. Idiot early adopter Apple fanboys verses idiot early adopter android fanboys is not the best measure of who will win out the tablet wars anyway. The only way is to wait it out until the year is up.

    • savagemike says

      Seriously !?

      I have been listening (for years – literally) to apple people go on and on about how macs are really not any more expensive when you consider the hardware they come with. That while it is true you can buy a lower priced PC, if you buy one with equal specs than apple is actually cheaper.

      Now, regardless of the fact that this argument has ever been very true at all, I find it as amusing as a cat chasing a laser-pointer to see all these comments online about how ipad is cheaper than android tablets.

      There has been like 1 andorid tablet for sale.
      It has been for sale for what? … a few weeks?

      Not withstanding that all tech will come off its initial pricing after a short span of time – nothing I see going forward in price projections looks like android tablets will be in any way priced higher than apple for similar hardware.
      And that is not even addressing that many of them will have hardware which apple has not thought to include, even in it’s expansive line of $40 dongles to buy.

  19. thedreadpirateroberts says

    I have read an article that made the most sense for why Android tablets are more expensive. It has to do with the hardware makers and where they make their profit vs how Apple makes it.

    Apple owns most of their supply chain by prepaying for the harder to get items leaving everyone else with less to go around at a higher price.

    After hardware makers get their more expensive items, they have to assemble it and market it. If they do not make a good profit off these tablets then the tablets would not be worth it to make. After they have sold the tablet that is it for their revenue, they must sell another tablet to make more money.

    Apple doesn’t have this problem, after they sell their tablet they still make money on paid apps. All the android market money goes to developers and google, the Hardware manufacturers don’t see a dime after that. Those 2 points are a big reason why apple can price their tablet starting at $499 and still make a hefty profit.

    Tablet makers are betting on phone carriers to help with the price by subsidizing the price of the tablet. This is where another problem comes in. There are 2 types of tablet users mainly. 1 is the type that just uses it at home with no 3g. 2 is the type that takes it on the go and has a smartphone that can probably teether for their wifi. In both cases no data plan is needed or wanted. Majority of the people wanting tablets will fall into those 2 categories. Leaving carriers to only sell a small amount of android tablets with data plans.

  20. Anonymous says

    I was talking in a bar in Yokohama on the weekend with a guy who is an engineer for a Japanese Android hardware maker. He was complaining about Android and lamenting the fact that now his company is in the Android game, he had to give up his i-Phone.

  21. Justin Hill says

    Outselling iOS devices means nothing. Who cares? Android phones have outpaced iOS phones but what phones are still THE phones to have…iOS phones(iPhone)!! Apple understands they will probably never outsell Google and their android system again in LIFE with phones and only have so long to do so with Tablets. Android is a whore OS. Its on every single piece of hardware except Apple hardware. It had better outsell iOS. With apple its not necessarily Quatnity. Its more about profit. At the end of the day, who’s profit margin wins….Apples does. This is why they will always be the more dependable company with the more dependable OS, bcause they have the money to do so. Android will always be the copycat system, trying to keep up with Apple iOS. Everybody has a place in the game. Androids place is the passenger seat catering to every hardware company there is just to be able to ride in Apples shiny car. Until Android understands that its more about Interface Fluidity, ecosystem, quality of Apps, dependable ecosystem, and an OS that wont neglect u after a year, they will never be able to take over the wheel. They are in Apples world. But u know what, Its working for them and I think they are ontent with that. When u are in second place, its not hard to compete with Apple.

  22. Andy345 says

    I think Android will succeed in the Tablet market, as it allows much more hardware and business model innovation with lots of manufacturers on all sorts of devices.

    Plus, the ecosystems of Tablets and Smartphones are close enough to promote a lot of crossover,and the overall Android ecosystem will be much larger and more profitable by the end of the year. This is primarily due to the huge increase in Android phones.

    The Android tablet experience will inevitably improve to a point where it does threaten Apple, and they know it.

  23. Drdubious says

    I have no guess about Xoom’s future market share, but as as user I am well satisfied:
    Out of the box, I was able to run most of the Android apps from my smartphone. I am able to watch free movies from Amazon and all of my regular television programming through Dish network. Now that Flash is enabled, there seems little I cannot do or see on the net. Every day the Android marketplace grows. The 3G connection is about twice as fast as my DSL line at home. Yeah, the data cap sucks, but welcome to the world of state monopoly capitalism. Everything will be capped pretty soon.

    • savagemike says

      What !?

      You think the data capping has to do with government interference?
      Or am I not getting what you are saying?

      Data capping and the like are strictly a product of the oligopolistic nature of that market.
      The government should be stepping in with regulation to mandate reasonable pricing on behalf of citizens.

      The cost of entry to that market all but ensures that it will never operate as a very free market. That is despite all the attempts of business and the political right to make it seem as though “free market” == “deregulated market”, which is simply not the case.

  24. Guest says

    Samsung’s new tablets beat the iPad 2 in key areas!! Thinner, lighter, higher resolution screen, higher resolution cameras, and starting at lower prices.

    The 1280×600 8.9 inch Tab version will cost $469 for 16 gigabytes, and $569 for the 32 gigabytes, but the models do not have an official launch date beyond “summer.”

  25. Ceoddc says

    You are all out of your mind. There have been so-called iPhone-killers for four years now…is the iPhone buzz slowing down? At all? No. What makes you think the iPad is any different? The quality of the products are COMPLETELY opposite (and don’t try to shoot back specs, specs aren’t quality related, they are simply how quickly your crappy device does different tasks). When you take apart an iPad vs PlayBook or Xoom or Galaxy, the only one with any kind of quality behind it is the iPad. Consumers know they’re getting a superior product, so they buy it. 95% of consumers don’t give a s@&$ about specs, they want to surf the internet and watch movies on the plane…and they’re choosing to do so with the iPad. Oh, and for all you ‘Android is the #1 OS on the market’ people, OF COURSE it is, how many different branded devices use Android? ONLY Apple devices use iOS, that’s what makes iPhone and iPad users cooler, not as many people have an iOS device! They limit production for a reason…so that all of you can think you’re bragging about the OS Market share while we Apple owners are a part of an elitist society. It’s jealousy…and if it’s not jealousy, it’s stupidity. You don’t think you can afford Apple, or you still honestly believe other brands are better. I have NEVER returned an Apple product in 20+ years, because their quality supersedes ANY other brand. You don’t see Samsung’s shares at $360 a share do you? Didn’t think so. F$&@ off and go back to your mom’s basement before your Kraft Dinner gets cold!

    • NookTablet says

      Looks like you are proven wrong already.

      Nook Color has 50% of the North American “tablet” market already. With the new update in April it will be every bit a tablet. . . and support things the iPad doesn’t. FYI, the NC only sell in N.A.

      Now you can go ahead and start your “redefining of the tablet/pad category” so you can rule out all other devices except the iPad so you can still tout market share. . . .

      • Sumocat says

        I wouldn’t shake that 50% figure around just yet. First, the claim is B&N *shipped* 3M units of the nook COLOR. That’s not how many they sold. Second, without a breakdown from Apple it’s impossible to know how many iPads were sold in North America, but I assume it was more than 20% of the 14M iPads sold total (pre-iPad 2). I know America is not the world, but we buy more than our share of the stuff. The numbers presented simply do not add up to 50% of the North American market.

  26. Sascha Pallenberg says

    Oh i just saw your comment on my prediction right now. I am not talking Motorola Xoom, which is a public beta for me. Motorola screwed it up, that’s for sure but i am talking about the overall market which will be 40-50 million tablets in 2011. Apple will sell 20-25 million iPads, the rest will be Android and some TabletOS and webOS devices of course.
    You will be able to buy fantastic dualcore Android tablets for $399 very soon (ASUS Eee Pad Transformer will be one of them).

    So, i am talking about dozen of Android tablets and a global marketshare. There is no chance for Apple to keep dominating this market in the future.

    You can quote me on this again, especially when the numbers are coming in by the end of the year ;)

    • Anthony says

      I’d definitely choose the Asus Eee Pad Transformer(name rolls off the tongue) over the Xoom, I like the IPS screen it has. Except that’s all assuming the Asus actually launches at 400 dollars…. last I looked it was removed from Best Buy’s site and currently sells for the equivalent of 500 dollars in Taiwan where it’s already released.

      People are really comparing specs too much though, I have an Archos 70 and believe the iOS devices simply have far better apps/games. With a jailbroken device you can do even more, just about anything an Android device can…. dropbox functionality, wifi sync itunes, extend computer screen, etc etc. People are also comparing things with how they are NOW. What will iOS 5 bring in terms of functionality? Rumors about “spaces” coming to iOS 5. I’m really curious to see how this market will play out, if it’ll be a repeat of the phone market or the mp3 player market. No one knows for sure and too many people are claiming their opinions are fact when they’re not. The only thing we can do is wait it out. Does anyone remember reading those hilarious comments people posted about the iPod when it was first announced? Grab the popcorn lol

  27. Sascha Pallenberg says

    Oh i just saw your comment on my prediction right now. I am not talking Motorola Xoom, which is a public beta for me. Motorola screwed it up, that’s for sure but i am talking about the overall market which will be 40-50 million tablets in 2011. Apple will sell 20-25 million iPads, the rest will be Android and some TabletOS and webOS devices of course.
    You will be able to buy fantastic dualcore Android tablets for $399 very soon (ASUS Eee Pad Transformer will be one of them).

    So, i am talking about dozen of Android tablets and a global marketshare. There is no chance for Apple to keep dominating this market in the future.

    You can quote me on this again, especially when the numbers are coming in by the end of the year ;)

  28. Fastblue94 says

    Netflix is the biggest downside to Android devices. Not everyone that has a phone has Netflix, so it isn’t that big of a deal. Yes, Android devices will eat up a large part (50% + or -) based on the variet of manufacturers making tablets. I prefer Samsung devices where someone else might prefer Motorola or LG. Each has there different options that are slightly different than the other. Android tablets will take over as they have with phones. Apple’s biggest play is snob appeal since their devices are limited to what Apple produces without the collaboration of others.SavingwithMarcus.com

  29. Fastblue94 says

    Netflix is the biggest downside to Android devices. Not everyone that has a phone has Netflix, so it isn’t that big of a deal. Yes, Android devices will eat up a large part (50% + or -) based on the variet of manufacturers making tablets. I prefer Samsung devices where someone else might prefer Motorola or LG. Each has there different options that are slightly different than the other. Android tablets will take over as they have with phones. Apple’s biggest play is snob appeal since their devices are limited to what Apple produces without the collaboration of others.SavingwithMarcus.com

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