Home Mobile Gartner says Windows Phone 7 will flounder, but Gruber Approves

Gartner says Windows Phone 7 will flounder, but Gruber Approves

The opinions of Windows Phone 7 are starting to pop up everywhere online now. A couple notable opinions that I want to share surfaced recently. One of them from Gartner analysts and the other from John Gruber from Daring Fireball, a known Apple Fan. Both paint a completely different picture.Let’s start with the surprise, Gruber. According to Business Insider, Gruber was singing some praises for Windows Phone 7 on a podcast recently. (hear it at about the 54 minute mark)

There is very little latency for touch input and scrolling — “iPhone caliber” versus the “jaggy” Nexus One.

The platform feels more thoughtful than Android. The whole thing feels like it was designed by the same team, versus Android, which feels like it was made by a bunch of different people.

If he had to pick between spending a month with an Android phone or a Windows 7 phone, just based on 5 minutes of use, he would rather have the Windows phone.

His comments, while positive towards Windows Phone 7, makes you wonder if he is cheering for Windows Phone 7 or tearing down Android. I can’t recall the site, but I read somewhere yesterday that Apple fanboys are bored with attacking Microsoft and have now shifted their attacks on Android. They say that Google is now the enemy, not Microsoft. Could that be the reason Gruber is positive in his opinions of Windows Phone 7?

Next up, Gartner Analysts say that Windows Phone 7 will flounder… Really? This according to Information Week

Microsoft’s introduction of Windows Phone 7, set to be formally introduced next week, will barely move the needle on the company’s dismal share of the smartphone OS market, according to new data released Wednesday by industry analysts at Gartner.

Gartner predicts the release of Windows Phone 7 will help bump Microsoft’s share of the worldwide market from 4.7% in 2010 to 5.2% in 2011, but says the company’s share will ultimately decline to just 3.9% by 2014.

These are all just predictions and I hope they are dead wrong. I am quite a bit biased, but from my hands on time with Windows Phone 7, I am quite excited and optimistic for Microsoft’s new OS release. I am 100 times more excited for 7 than I was for 6.5’s release. I realize there are several shortcomings with the initial release of Windows Phone 7, but the total revamp of the OS shows Microsoft is dedicated to mobile and I am confident that Microsoft will make the changes needed to compete.

If you want to read another great article, head over to Neowin and read this one, “Why Android is failing, iOS is doing OK and WP7 could save the day“.

So what do you think about these opinions. If I recall correctly, Gartner was a little hard on Apple before the iPhone’s launch in 2007. I hope they are wrong here too.

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9 Comments

  1. Chris Christian

    10/07/2010 at 3:55 pm

    I honestly have not read anything but raves from the people who had a chance to play with it.

    nice blog by the way….

    http://www.winphonejunkies.com

    Reply

  2. Taulant

    10/07/2010 at 4:17 pm

    Enough already with this “Gartners predictions” nonsense, because frankly its just that, predictions and its getting old.

    What I’m gonna say is that if Microsoft delivers on their promise of offering a seamless Zune, Xbox, Office, Skydrive integration experience, then they’re guaranted success. Because that’s what the majority of people want, everything in one place.

    Microsoft has never advertised anything so fiercely as its doing with its Windows Phone 7. They clearly want this to be a success and they’ve put a lot of effort into it.

    If worst comes to worst, Windows Phone 7 will not fail, but become a niche product just like the iPhone is / will be.

    With regards to the Android, it will continue to grow, however, if google do not step in and get a hold of their OS and provide a more stable one, with less fragmentation, then it will be another WinMo 6 in the making.

    Reply

  3. Taulant

    10/07/2010 at 4:17 pm

    Enough already with this “Gartners predictions” nonsense, because frankly its just that, predictions and its getting old.

    What I’m gonna say is that if Microsoft delivers on their promise of offering a seamless Zune, Xbox, Office, Skydrive integration experience, then they’re guaranted success. Because that’s what the majority of people want, everything in one place.

    Microsoft has never advertised anything so fiercely as its doing with its Windows Phone 7. They clearly want this to be a success and they’ve put a lot of effort into it.

    If worst comes to worst, Windows Phone 7 will not fail, but become a niche product just like the iPhone is / will be.

    With regards to the Android, it will continue to grow, however, if google do not step in and get a hold of their OS and provide a more stable one, with less fragmentation, then it will be another WinMo 6 in the making.

    Reply

  4. Dan

    10/07/2010 at 4:30 pm

    I agree with Gartner…the general public will be evaluating the WP7 phones against the iPhone, which should be going through another iteration soon, complete with the well established ‘app store’ listings. WP7 will be an upstart underdog swimming against the tide for a long time.

    Corporate America will be evaluating it and likely not adopting it enthusiastically. For the corporate world there is much more than just calendar, contacts, and email to do. The lack of task tracking, the inability to move items between email and calendar, and the lack of desktop sync with Outlook will steer more to Blackberry or to buy up remaining WM6.5 devices. For business use this is a step backwards not forward.

    I know everyone is excited to see this new phone OS but if you could go back in time and put your money on an mp3 player which would it be; Zune or iPod? I personally bought Zune’s for all my kids, which I still believe is a better player, but the iPod was and still is the standard to be chinned against. The iPhone is the standard now, and guess what, it is not a business phone either!

    I am with Gartner on this one…even after years of being in the market the WP7 phones will end up being a fraction of the sales of the iPhone.

    There is only one time in history that I can point to an example and say that a switch in the standard was effective…the Ford Explorer dethroned the Chevy Blazer as the standard utie. At one time all utilies were ‘Blazers’; then the unthinkable happened…they all became ‘Explorers.’ Can WP7 accomplish that or will it always be another ‘iPhone?’ Royal never dethroned ‘Jell-O’, all mixable drinks regardless of the brand are ‘Koolaid’, and all button up t-shirts are ‘Pollo’s.’

    Oh, there is one more takeover in standard nomenclature happening right now and it is in the reverse direction…all TabletPC’s are soon to be ‘iPads.’

    Dan

    Reply

    • Anonymous

      10/07/2010 at 8:10 pm

      I’m not sure I’ll trust the opinion of someone who tries to sync their email with Outlook in 2010 ;)

      Reply

    • GoodThings2Life

      10/08/2010 at 1:08 am

      No way… Microsoft is much better off dumping “desktop” Outlook sync and moving services to the cloud where people really want them. And more to the point, to say that lacking that feature is going to drive people to Blackberry versus Exchange is absolutely ludicrous.

      I’m not saying WP7 won’t initially lack a lot of features that people want, because it does, but the more important fact is that they focused on other features people want more, or at least ones they hope we will like more… a strategy Apple uses every year when people complain that the new iPod/iPhone is lacking feature X.

      Reply

  5. swede

    10/08/2010 at 6:04 am

    That Gartner even tries to predict this exceptionally dynamic market 4 years from now is somewhat amusing. But, to go ahead and publish the forecast with numbers in fractions of percent…now that’s hillarious!

    To put it in perspective, four years ago, in 2006, neither Android nor iPhone existed.

    Reply

  6. residential VoIP

    10/08/2010 at 10:51 am

    I have never changed smartphones for almost four years. I believe now I will most likely take the plunge.

    Reply

  7. Quentin Dewolf

    10/08/2010 at 7:16 pm

    I think that the issue is promotion. Android is such a runaway success because of its exciting ads not because it is better. this comes from having many hardware and carrier vendors compete. Apple only has apple for hardware and AT&T as carrier. Apple makes good ads/ marketing campaigns but AT&T is horrible at it. No non techie I know even knows that Microsoft makes a phone OS.

    Reply

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