Why the iPad 3 Won’t Come Till Next Spring

No matter what the rumors say, there will never be a new iPad released in the summer, fall or winter. The two reasons include 1) the almighty dollar and 2) Apple’s great and passionate love affair with it.

I’m not the guy who usually has strong opinions about this kind of thing, other than my strong annoyances at reading and sometimes even feeling the need to report Apple rumors. This rumor won’t die because it ignores the facts and Apple’s recent history.

Here are two reasons why I say the iPad 3 will not come until next spring.

Apple loves money!

Apple has more money on hand than the United States treasury. The iPad is a cash cow and only recently has Apple been able to keep up with demand. That won’t change for the next year. And even though the iPad 2 will have been out for more than half a year, it will still be a top gift item come Black Friday and the rest of the Christmas shopping season. People will line up outside of numerous stores in hopes of getting them at $449 for the first fifty customers. We will post stories about where to get the best deal on an iPad and they will sell so many of them that Apple will make a killing selling iPad apps December 25 and beyond. The iPad doesn’t need a new version to sell a ton of them.

On a related note, Android tablets will sell well too on Black Friday, and will slow down, then increase just before Christmas. Why? Because late shoppers will want to get a tablet for their husband, wife, son or uncle who has been begging for an iPad. iPads will be hard to get late in the buying seasons, so when the Best Buy blue shirt gal tells an unknowing grandma or clueless dad that the Android tablet is just as good, he or she will buy it thinking their loved one will be just as satisfied. On Christmas morning they will open the box and their heart will sink because there is no Apple logo. I think an Android tablet can be a good alternative but the majority of people who have not tested them out won’t think so. They will see their new HP TouchPad or Samsung Galaxy Tab or ASUS Eee Pad Transformer 2 as Android-powered iPad wannabes!

All of which is to say that the iPad 2 will be selling out without a new release.

iPad 3 - when is it coming

Apple loves money all year long!

Apple doest just love money at the holiday time! Releasing an iPad 3 – or iPad 2S, or whatever they call the next iteration – in March or early April, makes for a Christmas in spring financial windfall for Apple. It is late enough to not hinder holiday shoppers from picking up the iPad 2 (even the original iPad sold well months after the iPad 2 was released).

Moving the release time to this fall would put most of their biggest money products in that fourth quarter needlessly instead of spreading them out throughout the year. The iPhone release shifted to later in the fall because Apple released a second new iPhone for Verizon in the spring. Maybe they are having some manufacturing troubles getting this one right and want to avoid another antenna controversy like they had last summer with iPhone 4. The iPhone 6 or whatever they call it will shift back to next summer so that they have a big money item released in spring, summer and fall (iPods).

One argument states that Apple will need to stave off a popular new tablet from Amazon or someone else. That just hasn’t been the case. And while even I think the Amazon tablet might have the best chance to compete with Apple, it will not beat Apple until the Android Honeycomb operating system is more mature and the market has a better selection of apps. The longer that takes the less likely it will help Android compete an a level playing field.

I am not as certain of the iPhone’s move back to a summer release next year as I am about when the iPad 3 will show up on shelves. I’ll continue to bet on it being next spring and you should too!

10 Comments

  1. Tfizz

    08/03/2011 at 12:35 am

    Good read..

    Reply

  2. Chidere A. ❀ ♥

    08/03/2011 at 1:10 am

    I hope it does come out next Spring. I’ll have enough money for it saved up by then :))))))))

    Reply

  3. Anonymous

    08/04/2011 at 2:32 am

    I would generally agree with you.
    However I am not so convinced that they won’t come this fall.
    If new devices do come from amazon (or maybe just Gen 2 android tablets), and if they are well received – then apple with have nothing but older product in the pipe and would be sitting a bit naked if they too don’t have something for the holidays. They could put out anything and the geek-o-verse will go nuts analyzing and talking about it. If they do nothing and somebody else comes and it’s good then all that talk will be about the competition.
    Not that they still wouldn’t do well.
    They would.
    But – they might give up some ground, and like most things it is far easier and cheaper to maintain than it is to win back.

    I would not be surprised at either play by them at this point.
    But if they do come for the holidays with something new then it will be a large signal that they think more of the potential competition at hand than a lot of industry people do.
    Of course there game is not just to be best, it is to maintain the distance for as long as they can.

    Reply

  4. Haiku Digital

    08/04/2011 at 10:42 pm

    Kevin:
      I think you make some good points, and it really is too early to do anything but make educated guesses at this point.
      That said, I can’t help but feel your analysis is a little old school. I don’t think Apple has the leisure to capitalize on their position as top dog with the iPad 2. (To your point, Apple just reached supply/demand parity last week.) The latest buzz has been about all the new tablets (who can keep track). None of them match the iPad’s total package, but many offer an attractive feature or two. If Apple can deliver a new version of the iPad this Fall (perhaps a big ‘if’), all conversation switches back to Apple. I think that easily trumps the risk of sitting on their laurels to rake in some extra money.
      For many of the same reasons, I’m just not buying the delay-a-product-rationale-to-even-out-revenue argument. That’s what many companies would do and Apple is not many companies. If they can deliver an improved iPad, they will.
      Just my two cents…
     – Dave Hudson

    Reply

  5. surya

    08/05/2011 at 7:42 am

    IPAD3 release dates are more market driven depending on what competition has to offer.

    If there is a new tablet released (or announced) by say Samsung or by other company using the latest NVIDIA Kal-EL processor (which is 5 x Tegra 2). Apple will be under serious pressure to release its latest offering (IPAD3 or IPHONE 5) much earlier then its planned dates (which could be in 2012) to maintain its leadership position.

    my 2 cents will to be Apple releasing IPAD by 2011 end or early 2012.

    Ps: I feel Samsung will overtake Apple in Mobile/Tablet sales soon ( I personally like Samsung Galaxy 2 over an Iphone 4)

    surya

    Reply

  6. Dizzy96

    08/06/2011 at 5:10 pm

    I hope it comes out soon instead of spring because I’ll be able to get it off my parents for Christmas :(

    Reply

  7. Gettinpissed

    08/07/2011 at 5:08 am

    All that i know as far as a release date is concerned is that apple is losing money the longer that they sit on the 3g version. I will not buy another ipad till ver.3 comes out. i got burned on the ipad1 when the 2 came out a couple months later and won’t do it again. i’ve already played with the 2g and a 2gs would be another slap in the face. apple may as well have called the ver.2 ipad a 1gs since so little was done to improve on the platform.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *